[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010103
SWODY1
SPC AC 010100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
FDY 20 ENE BMG 45 E SLO 20 W STL 30 SW SPI 30 NNW LAF 25 NNW FWA 30
WNW FDY 25 SW FDY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
ORF 25 NW RIC 35 WSW DCA 25 SSE BWI 10 ESE SBY 25 ENE WAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
DAB 15 SW CTY ...CONT... 25 S BPT 25 WSW TPL 20 E SEP 10 NE DAL 10
NNE GGG 15 WSW ESF MOB 30 ENE PFN 25 ESE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PSX 30 S VCT
35 WNW NIR 30 N COT 25 NNE HDO 60 ENE JCT BWD 40 ENE ABI 40 S SPS 45
SW DUA 15 NW TXK 10 S GWO 35 SE AGS 15 SE GSO 20 SSW CHO 40 NNE SSU
15 NNE BKW 25 SE HTS 15 WNW UNI 30 SSW CMH 20 NE LUK 20 NNE SDF 30 N
PAH 25 W TBN 20 NNE MKC 25 E RHI 120 NE MQT ...CONT... 20 SW BUF 35
ESE PSB 20 SSW ACY ...CONT... 15 NNE MLB 25 N PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX TO THE GULF COASTAL
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...EAST/SOUTH TX...
NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL AND ERN TX AND
ARE BEING MAINTAINED VCNTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
NEAR 50 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS FEED ON MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. 
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.  ISOLD BRIEF
TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY AS STORMS MOVE ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DESPITE THE 0-1KM SHEAR BEING VERY WEAK. 
EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL MCS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH THE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO PARTS OF SERN TX WITH THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.  SRN EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS IN THIS
AREA...AND MAY CARRY THE STORMS INTO PARTS OF SERN TX AND WCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT.  OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH FROM NERN TX INTO
PARTS OF LA AS A WEAK SSWLY BRANCH OF THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. 
THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE MORE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH IN SCNTRL TX THAT MOVED OFF THE DRYLINE APPEAR
TO BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY.

...GULF COASTAL AREA...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARC FROM NRN FL ACROSS THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
THEN NWWD INTO SRN LA. STRONGER TSTMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ALONG
THE OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN FL AND HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR MODE. AIR
PARCELS FEEDING THE STORMS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES TO 1500
J/KG.  TSTMS COULD REMAIN INTACT TO THE NERN COAST OF FL THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.

UPSTREAM...SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER SCNTRL LA HAS BEEN FEEDING ON
A RESERVOIR OF 2000-2500 MLCAPES AND MAY MOVE ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRAPED SEWD INTO SERN LA THIS EVENING.  THIS STORM WILL
HAVE THE RISK OF ISOLD TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT THE
COVERAGE OUGHT TO REMAIN ISOLD.

OVERNIGHT...A FEW TSTMS...PROBABLY ELEVATED...MAY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO
PARTS OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS AS WEAK SSWLY BRANCH OF THE LLJ ADVECTS
INSTABILITY NWD.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...BUT MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY AUGMENT LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION IN ISOLD STORMS.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
LIMITED INSOLATION...OWING TO HIGH CLOUD CANOPY...HAS DIMINISHED
RATE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. 00 UTC
WALLOPS SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY 445 J/KG MLCAPES AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS TRIED TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER NRN VA/CNTRL MD.  GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
REGIME...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY TEND TO BRING HIGHER MOMENTUM TO
THE SURFACE WITH AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST.  OTHERWISE...THE
SEVERE PROBABILITIES SEEM TO BE REDUCED.

...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ROTATING ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF A DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOW ACROSS WI...IL AND NRN MO
THIS EVENING.  CENTRAL IL 00Z RAOB SAMPLED A MINUS 19C H5
TEMPERATURE ATOP NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS.  THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO STEEP LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR LOW TOPPED TSTMS. 
MAIN SEVERE RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS FORM INTO
LINE SEGMENTS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO WLY FLOW REGIME. 
OTHERWISE...HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND WEAKEN AS COOLING TAKES PLACE
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..RACY.. 06/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.