[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310044
SWODY1
SPC AC 310042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
ERI FKL HLG 20 WSW HTS 25 NW LOZ 30 SSW BWG 35 W HOP 35 NNE PAH 30
NNW EVV 15 W BMG 30 SSE DTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNU 30 SW END
70 SSE CDS 25 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 20 NNW MWL 30 WSW FYV 35 ENE VIH 50
S UIN 30 SW UIN 40 SSW IRK 25 NW CNU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR 10 SSW BML
20 ENE EEN 15 S GON ...CONT... 60 NE MOT 35 E PHP 15 NE VTN 50 S 9V9
30 SSW MHE 25 WSW ATY 55 E FAR INL ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 45 N INW 20
NW U17 30 SSW U24 20 E LOL 15 N RBL 30 SE CEC 45 SE OTH 35 WSW RDM
15 N BNO 45 N OWY 30 NNE OGD 55 S BPI RIW 20 NE COD 15 SSW GTF 70 NW
FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE DHT 50 NNW CAO
30 ENE PUB 30 N LIC 15 NE AKO 25 WSW IML 45 ESE GLD 15 WSW GCK 15 W
LBL 40 NNE DHT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...OH VALLEY...

HIGH LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE INCREASED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.  REMNANTS OF MID MS VALLEY UPPER VORT HAS
LIFTED NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IND INTO NWRN OH WITH LITTLE SFC
REFLECTION OTHER THAN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
SPREADING INTO SERN ONTARIO.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND IN THE
WAKE OF UPPER VORT INTO SERN MO HAS AIDED STRONG/SEVERE MORE
DISCRETE ACTIVITY WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
BROADER ZONE OF CONVECTION.  00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION DEPICT
SIGNIFICANT SFC-1 KM SPEED SHEAR...ROUGHLY 30 KT AT ILN...VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. 
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND STRONGER SPEED SHEAR WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL
OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...AT BOTH DNR
AND AMA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN NWLY WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LLJ SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS WHICH
MAY AID INFLOW AND ALLOW ONGOING CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS
ERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE ELEVATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR
PERHAPS A STRONG WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

...MN/WI...

CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED ALONG WIND SHIFT ACROSS SERN
MN/NERN IA OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN A
VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BUT MODEST DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR.  STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH AND FOCUS ALONG WIND SHIFT
WILL SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION SPREADING INTO WRN WI BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY DOES NOT
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 07/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.