[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 302002
SWODY1
SPC AC 302000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
ERI FKL HLG 20 WSW HTS 45 N CSV 55 N MSL 15 SE MKL DYR 25 W PAH 40 S
BMG 35 SSE MIE 30 SSE DTW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
FOD 25 SE SPW 25 SE BRD 20 SW DLH 65 WSW IWD 20 NNE EAU 20 ENE ALO
30 NE DSM 40 SSW FOD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNU 30 SW END
70 SSE CDS 25 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 20 NNW MWL 30 WSW FYV 35 ENE VIH 50
S UIN 30 SW UIN 40 SSW IRK 25 NW CNU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR 10 SSW BML
20 ENE EEN 15 S GON ...CONT... 60 NE MOT 35 E PHP 15 NE VTN 50 S 9V9
30 SSW MHE 25 WSW ATY 55 E FAR INL ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 45 N INW 20
NW U17 30 SSW U24 20 E LOL 15 N RBL 30 SE CEC 45 SE OTH 35 WSW RDM
15 N BNO 45 N OWY 30 NNE OGD 55 S BPI RIW 20 NE COD 15 SSW GTF 70 NW
FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE DHT 50 NNW CAO
20 E COS 30 NE FCL 35 SSW BFF 25 N SNY 20 NNW IML 45 ESE GLD 15 WSW
GCK 15 W LBL 40 NNE DHT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MS
VALLEY...

...OH VALLEY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ALONG THE OH RIVER. SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW IN SERN MO. SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
ACROSS IND AND OH WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD.

AT MID-LEVELS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A JET MAXIMA LOCATED ACROSS
SW IND WITH ABOUT 45 KT AT 500 MB. THE IND VAD WIND PROFILE CONFIRMS
THIS...SHOWING 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS APPEARS TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN
KY..SE IND AND SWRN OH ESPECIALLY IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
ACCOMPANY STORMS THAT ROTATE. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE FROM MULTICELL CONVECTION. HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE
CELLS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND ACROSS OH THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

...NRN MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS ND AND MN IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL MN WHERE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL REMAIN
MULTICELLULAR AS THEY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN MN AND ERN IA.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS IA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
STRONGER.

...HIGH PLAINS...
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS
OF ERN CO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED
ACROSS WRN KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. THE STORMS
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY A
MID-LEVEL JET MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SUGGESTS SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION.

..BROYLES.. 07/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.