[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310600
SWODY1
SPC AC 310558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
HUL 15 W AUG 20 SSW EEN 25 SE MSV 15 NE IPT 40 WNW ELM 30 W ART.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
DVL 40 SSE TVF 30 NNW STC 30 SW RST 40 NNW OTM 15 ENE P35 15 WNW STJ
25 W BIE 30 WNW OFK 25 SE PIR 35 N REJ 45 N MLS 70 NW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE GGG 50 WSW OWB
55 ESE IND 20 E TOL 15 NNE FNT 15 ENE HTL 10 ENE MBL RFD 40 SSE IRK
30 SSE CDS 25 SSW HOB 30 SSW INK 70 ENE P07 15 ENE GGG ...CONT... 85
S GBN 20 SE PHX 35 WSW PRC 55 SE SGU 75 NNE INW 55 WSW FMN 35 SSE
MTJ 40 SSW CAG 40 NE VEL 50 NNE ENV 30 NNW WMC 40 W RBL 30 SE EKA 30
ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 25 ENE EUG 55 NE BKE 60 E S80 35 E 3TH 65 ENE
63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN
U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO IA...

...NERN U.S...

BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PA INTO
UPSTATE NY...SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 70F.  THIS MOISTURE SURGE
WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY1 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT PROVIDE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION.

ALTHOUGH SFC PATTERN DOES NOT DISPLAY A STRONG REFLECTION OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER CONFLUENCE WILL
FOCUS ACROSS WRN PA/WRN NY AROUND 18Z...WITH A GRADUAL NEWD
SHIFT/FOCUS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO UPSTATE
NY BY 00Z.  VERY MOIST PROFILES AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION BUT SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES...ROUGHLY 35-40KT.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE FORECAST
STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...20-30KT...IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS
SUGGESTS ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A TORNADO.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND MULTIPLE
LINE SEGMENT ORIENTATIONS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT AS UPPER SPEED MAX LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NY INTO SRN
CANADA.

...NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES OF 30-60M WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.  RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES
WILL...HOWEVER...ENABLE MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PLAINS WHICH SHOULD WITH TIME SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. 
EARLY IN THIS EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD NOT
DISPLAY A STRONG CAPPING SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
COOL PROFILES OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION FRIDAY EVENING...AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BY AFTERNOON.  OF MORE CONCERN
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  IT APPEARS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA
WILL BE ONE ZONE OF POTENTIAL INITIATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS VEERED LLJ INCREASES INTO THIS REGION AFTER DARK
IT APPEARS A CLUSTER OF SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVOLVE...THEN PROPAGATE SSEWD TOWARD NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IF THIS
SCENARIO OCCURS THEN DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY BE OBSERVED.

FARTHER NORTH...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG BOUNDARY FROM NERN MT
INTO ND SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS
ACTIVITY PROPAGATES TOWARD NCNTRL PORTIONS OF SD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
 DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DARROW.. 07/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.