[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301632
SWODY1
SPC AC 301630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI
FKL PIT PKB LEX 30 N HOP MDH CMI 15 ENE TOL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
ATY BRD DLH 40 WSW IWD EAU RST FOD SUX 50 E ATY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD
PUB DEN FCL CYS BFF IML 45 NW GCK EHA CAO TAD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DAL 15 WNW PGO
25 SSE UMN 10 SSE VIH 40 S UIN 20 S IRK 40 WSW CNU 30 N OKC 30 SE
LTS BGS SJT 25 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 50 ESE P24
35 SW MBG 35 ESE PHP 15 ENE VTN 45 ENE ANW 30 NW YKN 45 NNE ATY 35 W
BJI 25 E RRT ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 15 W LCI 20 NNE BAF 15 S GON
...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 65 N TUS 45 NNE INW U17 60 NW 4HV 45 W U24 45
N ELY 35 WSW BAM 30 E SVE 35 E EKA 15 ENE 4BK 60 NNE MFR 60 SSE RDM
40 SE BNO 40 NW OWY 45 E MLD 30 S LND 25 NNE RIW 15 N COD 50 NW 3HT
85 NW FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN/IA/WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.  MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGES WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST STATES.  THREE AREAS OF
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEAR TO EXIST FOR THE DAY1 PERIOD.

...OHIO VALLEY...
WEAK UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL. THESE FEATURES WILL
TRACK ALONG THE OH RIVER INTO PARTS OF KY/IND/OH THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT.  AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  ETA/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF SYSTEM...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES OR STORM-SCALE BOWS.  RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL.

...MN/IA/WI...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...SPREADING INTO
WESTERN WI BY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EVENING. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF UPSTREAM
FEATURE TO FOCUS CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN KS.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 07/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.