[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301300
SWODY1
SPC AC 301258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI
FKL PIT PKB LEX 45 NE BWG 35 WSW EVV HUF 45 E TOL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
OTG 40 NNE RWF DLH IWD RHI ALO 35 SW FOD SUX 45 SSW OTG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD
PUB DEN FCL CYS 25 SSE BFF 55 N IML MCK HLC 25 ESE DDC GAG 55 NNW
CDS 40 WSW AMA TCC TAD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DAL 15 WNW PGO
25 SSE UMN 10 SSE VIH 40 S UIN 20 S IRK 40 WSW CNU 30 N OKC 30 SE
LTS BGS SJT 25 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR LCI 25 WSW
BAF ABE 35 NNW RIC 30 E ORF ...CONT... 70 NNW MOT 45 SSE P24 35 SW
MBG PHP 30 NE MHN 25 N BUB YKN 50 WSW AXN BJI 30 E INL ...CONT... 50
WSW FHU 65 N TUS 65 SSW GNT 25 E CEZ 35 S SLC OGD 30 SE LND 30 N RIW
COD 50 NW 3HT 85 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW RBL 30 E 4BK 60
SSE EUG 65 E RDM 45 SSW BKE 60 W BOI 55 NW OWY 65 W OWY SVE 15 ENE
RBL 50 NW RBL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OH VALLEY AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE-UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE DAY-1. 
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM NWRN ONT TO LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WEAKENING FROM MKC AREA SWD AS HEIGHTS RISE BETWEEN
ATLANTIC COAST AND 4-CORNERS HIGHS.  NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS HEIGHT
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH INTENSIFICATION OF 4-CORNERS ANTICYCLONE. 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
DAKOTAS/NRN NEB IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION BY END
OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...WEAK CYCLONE ANALYZED OVER SWRN MN/EXTREME ERN SD AREA WILL
MOVE EWD TOWARD WRN WI...WITH TRAILING TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT MOVING
EWD AND SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB.  MCS HAS DISSIPATED
WITHIN PAST 2-3 HOURS OVER SERN NEB/NERN KS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM E-CENTRAL CO...VICINITY
LIC...SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS TO DDC/GCK AREA.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. 
ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND
MOIST ADVECTION IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS...AND ONCE CONVECTION IS
UNDERWAY...TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.  STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING WILL
LEAD TO HIGH CLOUD BASES RELATIVE TO CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. 
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
IS POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 150-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH.  ACTIVITY
MAY ORGANIZE INTO TSTM COMPLEX AFTER DARK WITH SEWD TO SSEWD NET
MOTION TOWARD WRN KS...SERN CO AND PERHAPS OK/TX PANHANDLES. 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COLLECTIVE COLD POOL AND FORWARD
PROPAGATION...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT.

...OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
TSTM COVERAGE IS FCST TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND WEAK MOIST
ADVECTION-- WITH 60S TO 70 F SFC DEW POINTS -- SHOULD COUNTERACT
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO RAISE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO
500-1000 J/KG RANGE.  SEASONALLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
-- I.E. 35-45 KT AT 500 MB AND 70-90 KT AT 250 MB -- SHOULD ENHANCE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. 
BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS MAY DEVELOP WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND.  FCST LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS.  THREAT APPEARS PRIMARILY DIURNAL.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST
RISK INVOF SFC CYCLONE -- WHERE ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WEAK CAPPING AND LIFT NEAR LOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM GENESIS.  STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE
WILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY AROUND 30/21Z.  DAMAGING GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  THREAT HERE ALSO APPEARS STRONGLY TIED
TO DIABATIC PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT
31/03Z...THOUGH A SHORT LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WI.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SWWD ALONG SFC FRONT AS EVEN
WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 07/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.