[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300556
SWODY1
SPC AC 300554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
ERI 10 WNW HLG 45 W HTS 35 NE BWG 30 WSW EVV 25 NW HUF 30 E TOL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
TAD 25 NW COS 15 SSW FCL CYS 30 SSW BFF 50 ENE SNY 45 W EAR 15 SSW
OLU 35 S SUX 15 NNW OTG 25 ESE AXN 45 NNE BRD 30 S ELO 35 N IWD 20 W
RHI 15 WSW VOK 30 WNW CID 20 NNW LWD 10 SSE MHK 20 NE P28 20 S GAG
50 NNW CDS 40 WSW AMA 35 ENE TCC 50 E TAD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 15 W LCI
25 WSW BAF ABE 35 NNW RIC 55 WSW ORF 15 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 65 N TUS
65 SSW GNT 25 N GNT 25 E CEZ 20 SSE PUC 50 SE SLC 25 E EVW 35 NNW
RKS 30 SE LND 30 NNE RIW 15 WSW COD 20 NNW WEY 40 NW SUN 65 N WMC 15
ENE SVE RBL 35 E 4BK 55 SSE EUG 55 W BKE 20 SSW LWS 20 N GEG 55 NNE
4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 45 SSE P24
35 SW MBG 15 SSE PHP 30 NE MHN 25 N BUB 20 SW YKN 50 WSW AXN 20 S
BJI 30 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DAL 15 WNW PGO
25 SSE UMN 10 SSE VIH 40 S UIN 20 S IRK 35 NW SZL 45 WSW CNU 30 N
OKC 30 SE LTS 65 NNW ABI BGS SJT 25 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION.  ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL
PROGRESS INTO MN...IA...SWWD INTO NERN CO BY PEAK HEATING PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AS IT SAGS SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST PROFILE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE BY PEAK HEATING. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CO/KS WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SWD-PROPAGATING ACTIVITY THROUGH
LATE EVENING.

FARTHER NORTHEAST...WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT VERY STEEP LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MN INTO NRN IA ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. 
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN VEERED DEEP
LAYER FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD WI DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

...OH VALLEY...

UPPER VORT MAX OVER MO WILL SHEAR NEWD AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IL INTO LOWER MI.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM THE TN VALLEY NNEWD
ACROSS KY INTO OH BY MID DAY.  ANY LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AS VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY AND BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. 
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS OR BOW TYPE ECHOES THAT EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW/BRIGHT.. 07/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.