[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291254
SWODY1
SPC AC 291252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
4FC 25 SSW WRL 35 E COD 10 N SHR 35 NNE GCC 35 WSW PHP VTN 10 NE LBF
15 W MCK 25 SE LHX 40 WSW PUB 30 N 4FC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 20 SE FMN
U17 ELY 30 WSW PIH 25 NW 27U 35 E GTF 35 SSW Y22 35 SE BRD 35 ENE
EAU 20 SE CMX ...CONT... 30 N APN 35 SSE CGX 15 WSW STL 35 WNW POF
50 SSW JBR 10 WNW GWO 35 E TUP 20 ENE LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT...
35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM WY / SRN MT SWD INTO CO / NRN NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE / NRN
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SEVERAL
SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS.  MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN TERMS OF
SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS MT WITHIN MODERATE /40 KT/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW.  

AT THE SURFACE...MOST SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WILL BE A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE SWRN FRINGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A
WARM FRONT...AND THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER NERN CO / SERN WY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. 

...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN / RETURN NWD
AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NERN CO / SERN WY
VICINITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SOME NWD
RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES / ELEVATED MIXED SHOULD SPREADING ESEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN MARGINAL AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON. 
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MID-AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT / LEE TROUGH
/ WEAK SURFACE LOW ALL EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY BUT REMAIN
SOMEWHAT WEAK...40 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD YIELD FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER VEERING / SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  ALTHOUGH
DEGREE OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MODEST INSTABILITY...
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION
-- AND PERHAPS AS FAR SWD AS SERN CO / NERN NM.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND THUS MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THEREFORE...EWD EXTENT
OF THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY SPREAD
AS FAR ENEWD AS ERN SD / SWRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...ARKLATEX REGION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS SERN OK / PARTS OF
NERN TX ATTM...WITH WELL-DEFINED MCV MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN OK. 
THIS MCS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION INTO AR / NRN LA...WHERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS.  ALTHOUGH GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD
PERSIST FURTHER S ACROSS ERN AND INTO CENTRAL TX S OF ONGOING
STORMS...WEAKER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION.

ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 07/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.