[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291616
SWODY1
SPC AC 291614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FCL
CPR GCC 45 WNW RAP 35 WSW PHP VTN 10 NE LBF 15 W MCK 25 SE LHX 25 SW
PUB FCL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 75 ESE SOW 15 S
FMN 20 NNW SGU 30 WSW PIH 25 SW MSO 40 NNE HVR 35 SSE DIK 35 SE BRD
45 NNE EAU 15 WSW CMX ...CONT... 30 N APN 40 SSW SBN 10 SSW SLO 30 E
POF 30 W MEM 10 WNW GWO 35 E TUP 45 W LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT...
35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF WY AND
CO...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...AND EXTREME NWRN KS...

...ERN CO/ERN WY/SWRN SD/WRN NEB/EXTREME NWRN KS...
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO 
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
ENTERING NRN MT TURNS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. SEVERAL
WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SERN WY REGION WITH A N/S ORIENTED LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD NEAR THE
CO FRONT RANGE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER ERN PARTS OF CO AND WY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 50S.  MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND VERTICAL MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY RESULT IN A SMALL LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PRIMARY DIURNAL HEATING PERIOD.  HOWEVER...STEEP
LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD
EWD OVER THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AND CONTRIBUTE
TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF WY AND CO THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
HEATING AND WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  STORMS WILL PROGRESS EWD AND SEWD INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE
LOW AND LEE TROUGH WILL AID FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION.  ETA AND RUC
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND PROFILES THAT VEER AND INCREASE WITH
HEIGHT...PROVIDING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER CELLS.  THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
TO FORM...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY HIGH LCL LEVELS WITHIN WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET OVER NEB AND SRN SD STRENGTHENS...WITH A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING AFTER 06Z.

...ERN TX INTO NWRN LA AND SRN AR...
STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTINUING ALONG A BAND FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN
TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV OVER ERN OK.  VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE BAND.  MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT TO MAINTAIN MODEST STORM
ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST MAY OCCUR... WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C AT 500 MB COUPLED WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD REDUCE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO
MINIMAL LEVELS.

..WEISS/BOTHWELL.. 07/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.