[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290501
SWODY1
SPC AC 290500

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
4FC 25 SSW WRL 35 E COD 10 N SHR 35 NNE GCC 35 WSW PHP VTN 10 NE LBF
15 W MCK 25 SE LHX 40 WSW PUB 30 N 4FC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N APN 35 SSE CGX
35 S TBN 35 NNE LIT 10 E GLH 35 E TUP 35 E LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK
...CONT... 30 S DMN 20 SE FMN U17 ELY 30 W PIH 25 NW 27U 35 ENE GTF
30 SSW Y22 35 SE BRD 35 ENE EAU 20 SE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PWM 45 NNE
BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF CNTRL CANADIAN MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BEING
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK /NOW OVER W-CNTRL ALBERTA/ WILL
TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE TODAY OVER ERY WY/SERN
MT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WY/MT CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE NWWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE /7.5-8.5 C/KM/ PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES WITH AIRMASS ACROSS SERN WY INTO ERN CO/WRN NEB
BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK
FRONT OR WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN LIKELY OCCUR SWD
TO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WY AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE
CO FRONT RANGE.

WNWLY 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN
A RATHER BROAD REGION OF 35-45KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM ERN MT/WRN ND
SWD INTO WRN NEB/NERN CO. THUS...AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION.

STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS/MCS OVERNIGHT
WHICH MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS SD/NEB. DEVELOPMENT OF SWLY LLJ FROM
WRN KS INTO SRN SD SHOULD MAINTAIN INFLUX OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS INTO SRN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHERE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

...ARKLATEX REGION...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F/ WILL LARGELY
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY TO THE S OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INVOF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS N-CNTRL TX. WEAK
SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO
NERN TX...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ALONG AND E OF IT/S TRACK. COMBINATION OF MLCAPES APPROACHING
1000-2000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 07/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.