[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290046
SWODY1
SPC AC 290045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
SEP 15 NNE DAL 20 SSW PRX 35 NNE TYR 20 SE TYR 55 SSW TYR 30 WNW TPL
45 ESE BWD 30 SSW SEP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40
S PRC 45 ENE IGM 40 SSW SGU 15 NNE P38 35 E ELY SLC 20 ENE EVW 25 NE
RKS 15 NNW RWL 50 S DGW 30 NNE SNY 40 ESE LBF 35 NW GRI 15 ESE MHE
55 NNE ATY 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40 WSW
CID 35 NNW SZL JLN 35 NNW TXK 30 SE SHV ESF 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 35
NNW AND 15 S ROA 40 NE SHD 25 SSE PSB 50 ESE BFD 45 SE BUF 10 NNW
BUF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER A PART OF N-CNTRL
INTO NERN TX...

...N-CNTRL/NERN TX...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS PERSIST THIS EVENING ON SRN
PERIPHERY OF LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEAR THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH
AREA. WEAK SURFACE LOW COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER
N-CNTRL TX IS LIKELY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW INTO THIS REGION. MOREOVER...CURRENT FTW VWP INDICATES 40KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 100-150 M2/S2 SRH THROUGH THE LOWEST 1KM WITHIN
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
/PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

...HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO NJ...
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER ERN
NY SWD INTO FAR ERN PA/NJ WITHIN REGION OF FORCING AHEAD OF
VORTICITY MAX LIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL NY. THOUGH 00Z ALB SOUNDING
INDICATED ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...FAVORABLY STRONG MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. 50KTS AT 500MB AND 95KTS AT 300MB/
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ORGANIZED COLD POOL HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE FROM
SE OF RSL TO NEAR DDC WITH OVERALL SYSTEM PROPAGATION TO THE S AT
10-20KTS. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS SWRN KS REMAINS AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE /PER 00Z DDC/ WITH SOME AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR
ABOVE 700MB. THUS...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN
ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...PRIOR
TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER.

...SRN AZ/SWRN NM...
00Z TUS SOUNDING SHOWED WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER THROUGH 700MB WITH
MLCAPES OF AROUND 700 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK
VORTICITY MAX TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL NM ATTM WITH REGION OF
FORCING EXTENDING SWWD INTO SERN AZ. GIVEN THE AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..MEAD.. 07/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.