[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281958
SWODY1
SPC AC 281956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40
S PRC 55 E IGM 40 SE SGU 35 NNW SGU 50 WSW DPG 25 WSW OGD 45 ESE PIH
15 NNE JAC 15 SE COD 45 WSW GCC 60 SSE 81V 45 ENE AIA 25 NW VTN 40
NNW 9V9 45 SW FAR 50 W RRT ...CONT... 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40
WSW CID 35 NNW SZL JLN 35 NNW TXK 30 SE SHV ESF 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB
35 NNW AND 15 S ROA 40 NE SHD 25 SSE PSB 50 ESE BFD 45 SE BUF 10 NNW
BUF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DELMARVA TO CENTRAL/ERN NY...
AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS.  HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.  A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NY BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...AND SWD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO
CENTRAL PA.  ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AND ERN PA IN ZONE OF WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS SWD TO WRN TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN TX...
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTENDING SWD TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM MT/WY EWD
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A
MOIST AIR MASS OVER WRN KS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THEN EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL TX HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THESE AREAS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER WRN KS SWD TO THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE...AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX.  HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE STRONGEST MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE
NWRN KS/SWRN NEB BORDER AREA...WHERE THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT HAS
INTERSECTED THE LEE TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ALONG THE NRN
EXTENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...BUT WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW.  VIS IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED POST-FRONTAL AND LIKELY ELEVATED.  FARTHER SWD
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...DESPITE THE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CO/NM INTO ERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AS A FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ESEWD OVER THIS AREA.  ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER FAR SERN WY AND NORTH CENTRAL CO...GIVEN
NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED
HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 07/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.