[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281303
SWODY1
SPC AC 281301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW
LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL 15 SSE JLN 30 NNW TXK 35 SSE SHV 10 S HEZ
55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 45 ENE CHA SSU 35 W MRB 25 ENE AOO 30 N PSB 10 SW
ERI 40 NW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40
S PRC 55 E IGM 40 SE SGU 10 SSE P38 45 NNW TPH 40 SE LOL 25 SE BAM
25 W DPG 25 WSW OGD 45 ESE PIH 45 SSW WEY 30 S HLN 40 N MSO 20 NW
FCA 45 WNW CTB 40 NNW GTF 30 W LWT BIL 35 W 4BQ 40 WNW PHP 30 NW PIR
20 NW JMS 70 N GFK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE / BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES / PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THIS
PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MOVING EWD THROUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW. MOST ENERGETIC PORTION OF TROUGH -- AND ACCOMPANYING
BELT OF 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SEVERAL / LESS INTENSE
DISTURBANCES SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS.

FURTHER E...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NERN OH WITH SHIFT EWD ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING TROUGH...WHILE 4O TO 45 KT SWLY JET STREAK SHIFTS
FROM PA EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING.


AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES...AND SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST / MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCOMPANYING ERN U.S. LOW /
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST / MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHILE LAGGING ACROSS THE SERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...WY INTO WRN NEB / SWRN SD...
NELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES IN
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION.  LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN-LAYER CAPE AOB 500 J/KG EXPECTED.


NONETHELESS...PERSISTENT 40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS
REGION MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM SUGGESTS ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT...MORE PRONOUNCED DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN NOW ANTICIPATED COULD WARRANT SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE.

...ERN PA / ERN NY AND VICINITY...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LOW / TROUGH WHERE WEAK LAPSE RATES EXIST
ATTM...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH MEAN-LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 750 J/KG IS
ANTICIPATED...APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
 
MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH
SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS.  MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF CLOUDS
/ PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THIS REGION CAN
SHIFT EWD BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING GREATER DAYTIME HEATING /
DESTABILIZATION. 

...UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS / MN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH
CONVECTION FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES BENEATH BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW.

AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD WHERE
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS.  THIS COMBINED WITH GENERALLY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD AREA OF
LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL IS
APPROPRIATE...ALTHOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF GREATER SEVERE
CONCENTRATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

..GOSS.. 07/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.