[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280526
SWODY1
SPC AC 280524

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
GLD 30 W LBF 25 W BBW 20 WSW EAR 10 NNE CSM 20 NE ABI 35 NNW SJT BGS
35 E CVS 45 NNE CAO 45 NNW GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW
LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL 15 SSE JLN 30 NNW TXK 35 SSE SHV 10 S HEZ
55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 45 ENE CHA SSU 35 W MRB 25 ENE AOO 30 N PSB 10 SW
ERI 40 NW ERI ...CONT... 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40 S PRC 55 E IGM 40 SE
SGU 10 SSE P38 45 NNW TPH 40 SE LOL 25 SE BAM 25 W DPG 25 WSW OGD 45
ESE PIH 45 SSW WEY 30 S HLN 40 N MSO 20 NW FCA 45 WNW CTB 40 NNW GTF
30 W LWT BIL 35 W 4BQ 40 WNW PHP 30 NW PIR 20 NW JMS 70 N GFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOW EWD/SEWD PROGRESSION OF DOMINANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER CNTRL CANADA IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES SEQUENTIALLY MOVE OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL PUSH SEWD AND
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE E...WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
OPENING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DEWPOINTS IN 60S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF LEE TROUGH WITH
MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT THE OF CNTRL ROCKIES
ENHANCES DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND SWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. THOUGH FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
CURVATURE...WEAK WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE PROFILE
SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AND CAPABLE OF
MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EPISODES.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TODAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF MCV CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER S-CNTRL SD. POOR LAPSE RATES /LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION/ WILL LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS
AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF
MODEST SHEAR/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW.

...WY...
POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NELY/ELY
TODAY...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT
FOR THE INITIATION OF DIURNAL TSTMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED WIND OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...HOWEVER NWD EXTENSION OF CATEGORICAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR
WARRANTED ATTM AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC /I.E. MLCAPE
AOB 500 J/KG/.

...HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...
BOTH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF OPENING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND ACROSS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH
28/00Z ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT THE 
MODEL SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME IS ACTIVE AND LIKELY RESULTING IN AN
OVER-ESTIMATION OF THE INSTABILITY.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...HOWEVER...TO SUPPORT TSTM
ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
OR HAIL OCCURRENCES. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT AIRMASS WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK.

...ERN AZ/NM...
SRN PERIPHERY OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES SHOULD ENHANCE DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY
WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 07/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.