[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280038
SWODY1
SPC AC 280037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 N
GFK GFK 35 E ATY 10 SW FSD 20 WSW YKN 15 NNW ANW 45 SSE PHP 30 NW
PHP 50 S Y22 30 NNE Y22 80 NE MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
GBN 60 ESE EED 45 NNE IGM 15 W PGA 50 WSW FMN 25 S GUP 80 WNW TCS 30
S SAD 45 SE GBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 20 ESE STC
FRM OMA 30 NW SLN 30 NNW P28 END 10 SE OKC 40 SSW ADM ACT BPT LFT 30
SSE MCB 35 NW MOB TCL CHA 15 S TYS 20 SSW UNI 25 ESE CMH 15 SW MFD
30 WSW TOL 30 NW AZO MTW 40 ESE RHI 25 WNW MQT 105 NNW ANJ
...CONT... 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL 15 SW EED 10
ESE LAS 55 NE DRA TPH 25 ESE NFL 35 S WMC 30 NNW BAM 10 SSE OWY TWF
10 S 27U 45 N 27U 20 ESE MSO 30 WNW GTF 60 SSW HVR 55 ESE LWT 10 NW
MLS SDY 50 NNW ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN
DAKOTAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AZ INTO
FAR WRN NM...

...NRN PLAINS...
23Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL ND SWD TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER CNTRL SD /NEAR PIR/ AND THEN SWWD INTO S-CNTRL
WY/N-CNTRL CO. NARROW AXIS OF 60F DEWPOINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
WITHIN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 20-30KTS.

HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ERN WY...
COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO STRONGER CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z ABR SOUNDING.

...AZ/WRN NM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
E-CNTRL NV/SWRN UT TRANSLATING SEWD. THOUGH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS LIKELY PROCESSED AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN/CNTRL AZ...LOWER DESERT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /PER 00Z TUS
SOUNDING/ WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SEWD TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
IN PROGRESS ALONG THE RIM TO SPREAD SWD/SEWD ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR.
PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF FLOW AOA 6KM ON THE 00Z FGZ/TUS SOUNDINGS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS /SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.