[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 272002
SWODY1
SPC AC 272000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW
GFK GFK ATY MHE VTN 35 WNW VTN 10 ESE PHP 40 WSW MBG Y22 50 ENE DIK
65 NNW DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
TUS 25 SW PHX 20 NE FLG 45 SSE SGU 35 WSW MLF 15 SSW 4HV 40 ESE 4HV
35 ENE DRO 55 NNE 4SL 4SL 50 WNW TCS 30 S SAD 10 WNW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 15 SSE EED
40 E LAS 55 NE DRA TPH 25 ESE NFL 35 SSW WMC 45 NW EKO 10 E OWY TWF
10 S 27U 35 NNW 27U 30 WSW MSO 25 NNE 3DU 25 N HLN 15 S BIL MLS SDY
50 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 20 ESE STC
FRM OMA 30 NW SLN DDC 30 NNW CSM 45 E FSI FTW TPL BPT LFT 30 SSE MCB
35 NW MOB TCL CHA 15 S TYS 20 SSW UNI CMH MFD TOL GRR 20 S MKE 25 SE
RFD 45 WSW RFD LNR 10 NNW RHI CMX 105 NNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS....

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
STRONG HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING HAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS BEEN
ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES.

GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS...AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT  IS
FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS OVER A FAIRLY
BROAD AREA.  MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WITH
ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH/PARTS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO.  FORCING MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF
LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS...AND SOMEWHAT BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT MAY EXIST AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...TOWARD PHOENIX
AND AREAS TO THE NORTH/EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS STILL RATHER STRONG NEAR SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH
FURTHER HEATING.  FURTHERMORE...MODELS SUGGEST INCREASINGLY WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND CAP SHOULD
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 28/00Z. 
THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN WEAK IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...
RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS.  AS MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  I

STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
 THIS MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...IN MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES
IS MINIMIZING HAIL THREAT...BUT HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORES ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGE CAPE/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF AIR MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED SMALL SCALE DOWNBURSTS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO
BE FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK.

**FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 07/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.