[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271615
SWODY1
SPC AC 271613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
RRT 35 ENE ATY 10 NNE YKN 35 W EAR 30 S SNY 45 NNE CDR 60 NE DGW 25
SW GCC 15 SE 4BQ 25 SW DIK 50 N MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
IGM 25 E PUC 35 NNW GJT 35 WSW EGE 20 W 4SL 30 NNW SAD 40 SSE PHX 25
W PHX 45 ESE IGM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 15 SSE EED
40 E LAS 55 NE DRA TPH 30 SE NFL 50 NNW U31 EKO 45 WSW OGD 30 E MLD
50 NE JAC 40 SSE LVM 40 NE 3DU 45 N FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HVR 40 E LWT
50 WSW MLS 25 ESE MLS 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL 25 SE BRD
10 W FRM 10 S BIE 30 NW SLN 15 ENE DDC 30 NNW CSM 40 S OKC 45 ESE
LFK 15 NNW LFT 40 SSE MCB 25 S MEI HSV 15 SW LOZ 30 W UNI 20 SSW FDY
20 SE SBN 40 S MKE 15 ESE MSN 35 ENE RHI 15 E MQT 15 SSE APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SWRN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
ATYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS AND A POLAR FRONT  HAVING MOVED AS FAR S AS NRN GULF OF
MEXICO.  RESULT IS THE USUAL MOIST GULF AIR MASS IS CONFINED TO
IMMEDIATE GULF STATES AND UP THE E COAST TO DELMARVA AHEAD OF
FRONTAL ZONE . 

WHILE ONE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT
LAKES...STRONGER TROUGH  S CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDS SWD INTO NRN HIGH
PLAINS.  

A SRN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ERN NV/WRN
UT WILL EFFECT UNSEASONABLY FAR S INTO NRN/CENTRAL AZ EWD INTO NRN 
NM AND SRN CO. 

...NRN PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE THERMODYNAMICALLY
FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AS DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 60F WILL PRODUCE
MLCAPES TO ONLY ABOUT 1500 J/KG BY THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD.  

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS STRONGER FLOW WITH UPPER TROUGH
SPREADS EWD...TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER INTENSIFY AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LOW END SLIGHT
RISK.

...SWRN U.S...
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE S CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS FAR N AS THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ...THE HIGH LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NRN HALF AZ /WRN UT IS BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR FROM
THE W.

WITH 40-50KT WLY FLOW IN THE 300-250MB LAYER SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN
AZ  INTO NRN NM ALONG WITH  DEVELOPING STEEP LAPSE RATES AS  THE
500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND MINUS 9/10 C ...AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS
EXPECTED THIS AREA.

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN AZ/SERN UT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE
HIGH LEVEL SHEAR AND MID LEVEL DRYING...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE THE
HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.  MUCAPES TO 2000 J/KG
WILL BE AVAILABLE S OF RIM AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS.  GIVEN THE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE
HIGH LFC...AROUND 10K FEET...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
EXTEND SWD INTO CENTRAL DESERTS BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE
SEWD FROM MTNS INTO ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS.

FURTHER N THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTS OF UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FOR A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA INTO SWRN CO AND NW
NM.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 07/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.