[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271258
SWODY1
SPC AC 271256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
RRT 35 ENE ATY 10 NNE YKN 35 W EAR 30 S SNY 45 NNE CDR 60 NE DGW 25
SW GCC 50 W 4BQ 50 ESE GDV 50 N MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
IGM 20 N GCN 55 SSE U17 75 NW GUP 20 S GUP 30 NNW SAD 40 SSE PHX 25
W PHX 45 ESE IGM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 40 NNW EED
20 SE P38 70 ESE TPH 45 WNW TPH 25 SW NFL 45 W LOL 75 WNW WMC 25 NE
TWF 50 ENE SUN 45 NNE 27U MSO 25 NNW 3TH 80 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL 25 SE BRD
40 WNW DSM 25 NE BIE 35 S HSI 20 SE GCK 30 S GAG 35 WSW MLC 30 SSE
TYR 20 SSE LFK 30 S HEZ 20 SSW MSL 40 SSW LEX 40 SE DAY 15 WNW FWA
25 SSE MKE 35 NNE MSN 30 SSW CWA 15 ENE RHI 25 NNE MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF
NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALONG BOTH THE E AND W
COASTS.  WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST
ARE A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS -- THE STRONGER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN
AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ATTM WHILE THE WEAKER IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS NRN IN / SRN LOWER MI.

THE STRONGER / CANADIAN LOW / TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SLOW
ESELY MOVEMENT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS -- AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF
ENHANCED /35 TO 40 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW -- SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES / NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...WEAKER / MIDWESTERN FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES / SRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN PRAIRIE UPPER
LOW -- EXTENDING ATTM FROM SWRN MANITOBA SWWD INTO WRN ND / SRN MT
-- IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SSWWD INTO NWRN KS / SERN CO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...ERN U.S. BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST W OF THE
APPALACHIANS SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...DAKOTAS / NEB...
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO PARTS OF NEB...OVERALL
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /
MARGINALLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  

LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUGGEST MEAN-LAYER CAPE VALUES
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AT BEST IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG / AHEAD OF
FRONT...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD-MOVING
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

NONETHELESS...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS
ND AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED SWD INTO NEB...IT
APPEARS THAT CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER SWD
INTO W CENTRAL NEB WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / MULTICELL CLUSTERS. 
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
/ HAIL...WITH GREATEST SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING THIS EVENING
ACROSS ERN SD / NERN NEB.  ACROSS THIS REGION...INCREASED ASCENT AND
ENHANCED SHEAR -- ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET -- MAY
SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION / SEVERE THREAT.

...AZ...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS AZ
TODAY AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER NV MOVES SEWD. THIS ENHANCEMENT TO
THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS.  

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIM COUNTRY OF CENTRAL AND NRN AZ AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES AND UPPER FEATURE APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH WLY COMPONENT
TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD IN GENERAL KEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND WILL LIKELY EXIST
ACROSS CENTRAL / NERN AZ...ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN AZ -- PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP / PROPAGATE SWD / SWWD ALONG POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

..GOSS/JEWELL.. 07/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.