[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270515
SWODY1
SPC AC 270513

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
RRT 10 SW FAR YKN 40 W EAR 20 NNW IML 20 E BFF 45 NW RAP 30 SE SDY
65 NNE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
PRC 30 N GCN 30 SE U17 55 SW CEZ 45 S GUP 25 N SAD 40 SSE PHX 25 W
PHX 40 WNW PRC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM
...CONT... 40 ESE INL 25 SE BRD 40 WNW DSM 25 NE BIE 35 S HSI 20 SE
GCK 30 S GAG 35 WSW MLC 30 SSE TYR 20 SSE LFK 30 S HEZ 20 SSW MSL 40
SSW LEX 40 SE DAY 15 WNW FWA 25 SSE MKE 35 NNE MSN 30 SSW CWA 15 ENE
RHI 25 NNE MQT ...CONT... 25 W YUM 40 NNW EED 20 SE P38 70 ESE TPH
45 WNW TPH 25 SW NFL 45 W LOL 75 WNW WMC 25 NE TWF 50 ENE SUN 45 NNE
27U MSO 25 NNW 3TH 80 ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF AZ...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 1
PERIOD WITH MOST PROMINENT FEATURES BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS
CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL CANADA AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE FORMER WILL
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD WHILE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAK ROTATES SEWD FROM IT/S SWRN QUADRANT INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE LATTER WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INCREASING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL
PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD INTO CNTRL WY BY MID
AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ALSO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY
FROM INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT OVER WRN SD SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS. IN THE E...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF NY/PA BY THIS EVENING WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST.

...NRN PLAINS/NEB...
BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW EXPANSIVE PLUME OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/I.E. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON FROM SRN MANITOBA SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN ND.

THOUGH STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE N ACROSS POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...NARROW CHANNEL OF 30-40KT 0-6KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE LATER TODAY.
THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/
WILL EXIST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO QUASI-LINEAR MCS OR
SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH A MORE ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO BUILD SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH
INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WRN NEB. THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE
N...ANTICIPATED STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD FOSTER VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

...AZ...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA/NWRN NV WILL PROGRESS
SEWD AND APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY...LIKELY ENHANCING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN/CNTRL AZ. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP...WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
MOREOVER...MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY...PROMOTING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AS WELL AS
ALONG LEE TROUGH. THOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUSTAIN VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 07/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.