[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261616
SWODY1
SPC AC 261614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 30 E PHP 35
E AKO 30 SSW CVS 40 N JCT 20 SW CLL 25 SSE ELD 40 E MEM 50 SSW CKV
30 SSW SDF 45 W LUK 15 N MTO 40 ENE BMI 25 NNE BEH 45 NNE MTC
...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 30 N ELM 20 WNW IPT 30 W ABE 20 ESE NEL
...CONT... CZZ 10 WSW CZZ 45 WSW TRM 40 WNW EED 55 NNE LAS 30 W P38
25 SSW NFL 15 SSE MHS 15 NE LMT 30 S MSO 40 NNW MSO 90 WNW FCA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS IL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM
DROPPING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO
WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SWRN ID AND NWRN WY.  THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  OVERALL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...NRN ROCKIES REGION...
12Z SOUNDINGS AT BOI..TFX..AND RIW MAINTAIN INVERTED-V
CHARACTERISTICS WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER. WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM SRN ID INTO WY AND CENTRAL
MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THIS
REGION.  BREAKS IN CLOUDS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR...WHICH WILL
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND HAVE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT RISK AREA.

FARTHER NORTH IN MT...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD
FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN MT MAINLY
TONIGHT.  THIS MAY FOCUS A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MT TONIGHT. 
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CELLS.

...AZ...
12Z UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A WEAK HIGH LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY.  THIS IS AIDING MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL AZ.  SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE...AND ANTICIPATED STRONG
HEATING WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
A FEW STRONG CELLS SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH
THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

...TN VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS /25-30 KT/ IS NOTED OVER
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OH VALLEY AREA...DEEP MOISTURE LAYER AND
ATTENDANT WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO WV.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS THINNING OF CLOUDS FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN NEWD INTO WV SUGGESTING
THAT REGIONS OF LOCALIZED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN
THIS AXIS.  THIS MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL  ALONG THE SERN
EDGE OF STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
MARGINAL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS.

..WEISS/GUYER.. 07/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.