[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261247
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 WSW CZZ 45 WSW
TRM 40 WNW EED 55 NNE LAS 30 W P38 25 SSW NFL 15 SSE MHS 15 NE LMT
30 S MSO 40 NNW MSO 90 WNW FCA ...CONT... 60 N DVL 45 SSE PHP 35 E
AKO 30 SSW CVS 40 NE SJT 20 WNW CLL 20 SE ELD 35 SSW MKL 25 SSW CKV
40 SW SDF 40 N SDF 15 N MTO 40 ENE BMI 25 NNE BEH 40 NNE MTC
...CONT... 30 WNW SYR 25 WNW MSV 15 ENE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ANJ 45 SSW ESC
15 WSW LNR 45 SSW LSE 30 NW LSE 10 WNW IWD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH MORE PROMINENT SHORT-WAVE FEATURES INCLUDING A TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS...ANOTHER
ACROSS SRN ID AND VICINITY...AND A THIRD MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT NEWD WHILE TRAILING TROUGH / WEAK FRONT REMAINS ROUGHLY
STATIONARY.  MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WHILE CANADIAN FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NWRN ND.  WIDESPREAD STORMS BUT LIMITED IF ANY SEVERE THREAT CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS E OF SURFACE TROUGH.  STORMS WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES / NRN
HIGH PLAINS REGION -- ALTHOUGH ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY -- AND THUS AIRMASS
ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WEAK AXIS OF MEAGER MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED NWD / NNWWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF MT.  

STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY / ADJACENT
WRN SD AND INTO MT THIS AFTERNOON -- AS WELL AS ALONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA.  

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED -- PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONGER HIGH-BASED STORMS. 
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LOW ENOUGH ATTM TO MAINTAIN ONLY 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITY.  

...PARTS OF AZ...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AZ ATTM INVOF WEAK
UPPER CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER THIS REGION.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
/ DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE RIM COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NRN AZ IN WEAK NWLY /
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...A FEW STORMS MAY STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL --
PARTICULARLY IF WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS SOME PROPAGATION SWD OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED.

..GOSS/BANACOS.. 07/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.