[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260603
SWODY1
SPC AC 260601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 WSW CZZ 45 WSW
TRM 40 WNW EED 55 NNE LAS 30 W P38 25 SSW NFL 15 SSE MHS 15 NE LMT
30 S MSO 40 NNW MSO 90 WNW FCA ...CONT... 60 N DVL 45 SSE PHP 35 E
AKO 30 SSW CVS 40 NE SJT 20 WNW CLL 20 SE ELD 35 SSW MKL 25 SSW CKV
40 SW SDF 40 N SDF 15 N MTO 40 ENE BMI 25 NNE BEH 40 NNE MTC
...CONT... 30 WNW SYR 25 WNW MSV 15 ENE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ANJ 45 SSW ESC
15 WSW LNR 45 SSW LSE 30 NW LSE 10 WNW IWD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST/
SRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ESEWD OVER WRN CANADA.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER TODAY...AND
THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT.  SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL ADVECT A NARROW AXIS
OF MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS.  A PLUME OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST
AXIS SHOULD CAP MOST OF THE WRN DAKOTAS...LIMITING AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM THE BLACK
HILLS WWD TO PORTIONS OF ERN MT/ERN WY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THESE
AREAS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES RESULTING IN ISOLATED MICROBURSTS.  

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SSEWD INTO FAR NRN-NERN MT
LATE IN THE PERIOD /BY AROUND 03-06Z/ ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN MT/NWRN ND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT AND A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. 

...CENTRAL/NRN AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL/NRN AZ TO THE PORTION OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH
OF LAS.  POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTICELLS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD
THE LOWER DESERTS OF SRN AZ...BUT THIS LIKELIHOOD IS TOO SMALL TO
WARRANT PROBABILITIES OVER THAT PORTION OF AZ.

...GULF COAST STATES TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES.  IN ADDITION TO THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY...THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
LEFT OVER FROM SUNDAY/S ACTIVITY.  LESS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS MUCH OF THIS
REGION HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED.  A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY STRONG ACTIVITY WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS/BANACOS.. 07/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.