[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260103
SWODY1
SPC AC 260101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 NNE RAL 25 WSW
DAG 40 ENE DAG 20 W LAS 55 WNW DRA 40 SSW TVL 35 WNW SVE 30 ENE ACV
RDM PDT 20 WNW 3TH 25 ESE FCA 35 ENE GTF 20 E WRL 30 SW LHX 55 NNW
TCC 20 NNW 4CR 45 ENE ALM 15 WNW FST 60 NNE P07 40 SW BWD 40 NE ACT
50 SE PRX 20 NW TXK 20 ENE HOT 15 SW MEM MKL HOP 15 NNE SDF 20 ESE
CAK 25 N LBE 50 ENE EKN 20 NW LYH 25 N GSO 20 ENE CAE 40 SSE AGS 20
SE AYS 30 SE GNV 10 N AGR VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CRE 25 SSW GSB
35 SSW RIC 25 NNE RIC 20 E SBY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS TO GULF COAST STATES...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS WRN TN TO CENTRAL/SRN TX...
WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED MORE E-W FROM FAR SRN SC ACROSS
CENTRAL GA TO NRN AL.  VIS IMAGERY AND MESO-ANALYSES INDICATED
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCURRED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES TODAY.  A COUPLE OF
WEAK MCVS...ONE MOVING NEWD INTO CENTRAL KY AND THE SECOND ACROSS
NRN MS SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS.  OTHERWISE...STORM MERGERS
ELSEWHERE WILL AID IN A FEW MORE HOURS OF STORMS SWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. 
THUS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO 5 PERCENT WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WHERE EXISTING STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOWER
TO DIMINISH.

...AZ...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
AZ...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND STORM MERGERS EARLY THIS EVENING COMPARED TO THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  NONETHELESS...NNELY STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO PROPAGATE SSWWD INTO THE DESERTS
WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS AGAIN RESULTED IN A DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES...
WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SWRN-WRN ID AT 00Z
WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN ID OVERNIGHT. 
MID-UPPER LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WITH THIS TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  20-25 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY. 
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE GREATEST
THREAT AREA THROUGH THE EVENING FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL ORE INTO SRN ID...GIVEN THIS AIR MASS HAS
NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED SO FAR TODAY. 00Z BOI RAOB
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO BASED ON A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.

..PETERS.. 07/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.