[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251947
SWODY1
SPC AC 251945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
OWY 35 NW OWY 40 E BKE 30 NE S80 25 S 3DU 35 ESE DLN 40 WSW JAC 35
SE MLD 45 N ENV 25 ESE OWY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
YUM 25 S SGU 35 WSW PGA 15 ENE FLG 55 ESE SOW 25 ESE SAD 20 WSW DUG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
LUL BTR 20 SE BPT 35 SSW HOU 40 SSW CLL CLL 50 N POE 55 E MLU 15 ENE
UOX 15 ESE BNA 25 N LOZ JKL 10 ENE 5I3 40 SW BLF 30 S TRI 40 E RMG
25 NW AUO 55 NW CEW 45 SSW LUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE IPL LAS 55 WNW
DRA 65 SSE TVL 65 NNE SAC MHS RDM PDT S06 40 SE FCA GTF 20 E WRL 15
E PUB 45 E LVS ROW 30 S HOB SJT 15 WSW TPL GGG MKL HOP SDF 20 W HLG
25 SW LBE 40 ENE EKN SHD 45 SSW DCA 25 ENE SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN/LOWER
MS VALLEYS/SERN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE ID REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS AZ...

...TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV LOCATED EAST OF 
BNA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AND
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT A FEW DAMAGING 
DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND SERN
TX...BUT THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000
J/KG. GIVEN THE INTENSE HEATING AND WEAK CAP...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
 DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT STRETCHES
FROM TN SWWD INTO ERN TX. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND FIELDS...THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW MICROBURSTS.

STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD DIMINISH/WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.

...AZ...
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NELY
MID LEVEL WINDS. INTENSE SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERT AREAS AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN CUMULUS CLOUDS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE NELY STEERING FLOW AND STORM COLD POOLS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN DRIVE STORMS SWWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 35-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

...ID/SWRN MT...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
VORT CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE ORE/ID BORDER. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE-600 MB ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ON THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOULD DEEPEN WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. THESE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THE
STORMS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..IMY.. 07/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.