[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251620
SWODY1
SPC AC 251618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W
ESF 20 W MLU 35 S PBF 10 NNE BWG 30 W JKL 20 WNW TRI 50 S TYS BHM 30
S LUL 20 NNW BTR 10 W ESF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
OWY 30 NW OWY 45 NW BOI 75 SSE S80 50 NNE 27U 35 NE DLN 35 WSW JAC
35 ENE MLD 45 S BYI 25 ESE OWY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
YUM 30 W PRC 20 SSE GCN 55 N INW 40 NE SOW 20 NNE SAD FHU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 15 WNW SGU
55 SE ELY 25 ESE U31 55 SSW SVE 50 E EKA 35 ESE CEC 20 W MFR 65 E
RDM 35 ENE EPH 25 SSW 63S 50 WNW FCA 45 WSW CTB 15 NW GTF 20 S 3HT
50 ESE RIW 35 N LAR 50 ESE CYS 40 N LHX 15 WNW CAO 25 N CVS 50 ENE
HOB 45 ENE ABI 15 NW DAL 35 SSE MLC 30 E FYV 55 SSW STL 15 W CMH 25
N HLG 10 W LBE 40 ENE EKN 15 N CHO 25 S DCA 35 SE DOV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE TN/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/CENTRAL ID INTO SWRN MT...

...PORTIONS TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
MCV/VORT CENTER CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS WRN TN INTO FAR
SRN KY THIS MORNING...WITH WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW INCREASING
CONVECTION SSWWD TOWARDS FAR NWRN AL ATTM.  APPEARS AIR MASS IS
ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE / MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG / WITH
LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION LEFT AT 15Z THIS MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT AHEAD OF
PERSISTENT DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF WRN TN WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE
TN NNEWD ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER INTO SERN KY. IN ADDITION...REGION
WILL REMAIN ALONG PERIPHERY OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 20 KT
EVIDENT IN AREA VWP/S AND BNA/S 12Z SOUNDING.  THIS MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND FAR ERN
TX...FLOW ALOFT WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
LIKELY TO OCCUR.  HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/WET MICROBURSTS WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVERLAYING
A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT JAN.  MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDING SUGGESTS AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE
CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION.  THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TN MCS EXTENDING SSWWD FROM NERN MS
INTO NERN LA.  EVEN WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
70+ SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPARENTLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AR/WRN TN THIS
MORNING.  THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH INDIVIDUAL
STORMS DUE TO PULSE-NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...EXPECT SEVERE
COVERAGE WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A SLIGHT RISK.

...AZ...
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE OVERALL AIR MASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
PAST 24 HRS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DRYING AT PHX.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
WELL DEFINED MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ ATTM.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS IN
WATER VAPOR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER
ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF AZ.  WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME VIGOROUS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT NELY STEERING
CURRENT AVAILABLE TO BRING STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. THUS...THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN
LOOKS WORTHY OF A SLIGHT RISK TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...ID/SWRN MT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS SERN ORE THIS
MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING CENTRAL/SRN
ID AHEAD OF IT.  THOUGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE MAY
INHIBIT HEATING A BIT...EXPECT SUFFICIENT WARMING TO OCCUR FOR
MODEST INSTABILITY BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  12Z SOUNDING FROM BOI
INDICATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS...SHOULD
SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCUR...WITH PRECIP. WATER AROUND .85 INCHES. 
GIVEN LARGE SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATE...EXPECT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AS STORMS BECOME FOCUSED
AHEAD OF APPROACHING VORT CENTER.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.