[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251246
SWODY1
SPC AC 251244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 15 WNW SGU
55 SE ELY 25 ESE U31 55 SSW SVE 50 E EKA 35 ESE CEC 20 W MFR 65 ENE
RDM 35 ENE EPH 25 SSW 63S 50 WNW FCA 45 WSW CTB 15 NW GTF 35 W 3HT
50 ESE RIW 20 NNW BFF 45 N IML 15 SSE GLD 15 S CAO 15 NE CVS 55 ENE
HOB 30 S CDS 30 ESE SPS 40 S MLC 30 SSW UMN 50 SSW STL 20 SE CMH 25
SSW CRW 25 SSW LYH 40 W RIC 25 SSE DCA 25 SSW ACY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY...AND WRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES...

EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM S TX NEWD THROUGH
SRN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL AND N GA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THIS
FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 C ARE RESULTING IN
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SWD TODAY. WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS WITH PRIMARY
THREAT BEING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.


...CNTRL AND SRN AZ...

NELY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE RIM TO
DEVELOP SSWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. INVERTED-V PROFILES
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
THREAT OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND HAIL.


...CNTRL AND ERN CO...

UPSLOPE REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AIR ORIGINATING FROM A COOL...CLOUDY AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO POSE PROBLEMS FOR STORMS TO
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
INITIATION AND STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE MORE LIKELY. ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCV WAS LOCATED OVER SERN OR. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD TODAY AND MAY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED STORMS AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
PARTS OF ID. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OR.

..DIAL/BANACOS.. 07/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.