[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250612
SWODY1
SPC AC 250611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 15 WNW SGU
55 SE ELY 25 ESE U31 55 SSW SVE 50 E EKA 35 ESE CEC 20 W MFR 65 ENE
RDM 35 ENE EPH 25 SSW 63S 50 WNW FCA 45 WSW CTB 15 NW GTF 35 W 3HT
50 ESE RIW 20 NNW BFF 45 N IML 15 SSE GLD 15 S CAO 15 NE CVS 25 NW
BGS 30 SE ABI 15 WNW DAL 40 S MLC 30 SSW UMN 50 SSW STL 20 SE CMH 25
SSW CRW 25 SSW LYH 40 W RIC 25 SSE DCA 25 SSW ACY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TODAY...AS IT
REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM STRONGER...MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS CANADA.
 A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WRN CANADA AND WA/WRN ORE
WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TRACKING EWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN.  COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SRN TX AND THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES.  A WEAK SURFACE WAVE INITIALLY OVER AR WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD
AL/TN IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

...CENTRAL-ERN CO/NERN NM...
30 KT OF NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN CO BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH.  AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS ESEWD OF CO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME SELY ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW.  DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY.  STORMS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING ESEWD INTO
THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY.  30 KT OF MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW ATOP SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...CENTRAL-SRN AZ...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL-NERN AZ.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERTS OF
CENTRAL/SRN AZ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  NELY
STEERING FLOW AROUND 15 KT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOLS SHOULD
ALLOW STORMS TO PROPAGATE SWWD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
 STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE
DESERTS...BUT THE MARGINAL STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

...CENTRAL-SRN ID/ERN ORE/NRN NV/NWRN UT...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY AND MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH A DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...GULF COAST STATES...
AIR MASS FROM SERN TX AND EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
REMAIN VERY MOIST TODAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  STRONG HEATING EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AIR MASS...BUT
WEAK WIND FIELDS AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..PETERS/BANACOS.. 07/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.