[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250103
SWODY1
SPC AC 250101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
YUM 45 ENE BLH 50 SE IGM 55 NNE PHX 65 SW SOW 25 NNE TUS 65 WSW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 45 NNW BLH 55 SW
SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 30 SW TVL 30 SW RBL 45 W MHS 30 W MFR PDX 35
ESE HLN 45 S DGW 15 ENE CVS 25 SW CDS 30 SSE OKC 20 NE CNU SZL 30
SSW MTO BWG 45 E TRI 65 N RWI 25 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 25 SW AUS 25
SSE JCT 10 NW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ...

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST AZ...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER THE DESERTS OF CENTRAL/SWRN AZ HAS
RESULTED IN A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INVERTED-V
PROFILES.  A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40-45 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS SWWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

...ARKLATEX/NRN LA TO THE OZARKS REGION...
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/AR
BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TO WRN TX...
WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDED EWD ACROSS AR TO THE NRN/
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER EAST ACROSS AR
INTO SRN MO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES
WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.

...CENTRAL/SERN ORE TO NERN CA/NWRN NV/EXTREME SWRN ID...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN CA...WILL MOVE
NWD INTO ORE OVERNIGHT.  MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG...
WITH THE GREATEST VALUES LOCATED OVER NERN CA AND NRN ORE WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 50 DEGREES.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NERN CA/NRN NV INTO SRN-ERN ORE AND
PORTIONS OF SRN ID AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADS NWD.  WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES PER AREA 00Z RAOBS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 
HOWEVER...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY FROM 50-60 DEGREES WILL FAVOR
 ISOLATED STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 07/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.