[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241954
SWODY1
SPC AC 241952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE
YUM 55 WNW GBN 40 W PRC 10 NW FLG 25 SSE SOW 40 SSW SAD 20 SE FHU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
ABI 25 ESE SPS 25 NNW ADM 20 SW MKO 20 NE FYV 30 SSW UNO 10 NW ARG
15 S JBR 55 ENE PBF 30 WNW ELD 20 NW GGG 30 NE ACT 40 S SEP 60 NNE
ABI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSW IGM
45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 30 SW TVL 30 SW RBL 45 W MHS 30 W MFR
PDX 40 N 27U 45 S DGW 15 ENE CVS 50 SSW CDS 20 WNW SPS CNU 15 SE OJC
30 SSW MTO BWG 40 NNW HKY RIC 25 ENE SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN
AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN TX/SERN
OK/AR...

...NRN TX NEWD INTO AR...
AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR CNU...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS OF TX. HOWEVER...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...NEAR A
ABI-ADM-FSM-JBR LINE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY 6-6.5C/KM...A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...500 MB WINDS
NEAR 20 KT AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE CONVECTION IS
PRIMARILY THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. 

...CENTRAL/SRN AZ...
MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND WHERE MORNING
SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AZ. NELY WINDS AT 15-20
KT WILL RESULT IN STORMS TO PROPAGATE SWWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
THE DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION AND IF A COLD POOL CAN
DEVELOP...A WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO
AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...THE ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING/INSTABILITY.

...NRN CA INTO SRN ORE...
WV/VSBY IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NWD ACROSS NRN
CA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT
IN THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
MUCAPES ARE ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG AND SHOULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY
LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK WINDS FROM THE SURFACE-500 MB...THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A STORM OR TWO WITH BRIEF SEVERE
HAIL/WIND.

..IMY.. 07/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.