[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241632
SWODY1
SPC AC 241630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW
GBN 55 WNW GBN 50 SSW PRC 55 SSE FLG 35 SSE SOW 40 SSE SAD 10 SW
DUG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
SHV 45 NW TYR 25 WSW DUA 45 N ADM 35 ENE MKO 55 WSW ARG 55 WSW MEM
10 WNW GLH 30 N SHV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSW IGM
45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 30 SW TVL 20 ENE RBL 45 W MHS 30 W MFR
PDX 40 N 27U 30 N GCC 25 NW AKO 15 SSE DHT 65 SW GAG 15 NW ICT 30 S
FNB 35 SW UIN 25 NE HOP TRI 35 NNE CHO 15 N BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN
AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX/ERN
OK/AR...

...CENTRAL/SRN AZ...
12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER AZ WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DESPITE STRONG MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...NELY MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MODEST /AROUND
20 KT/ ALONG SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  MODELS
SUGGEST SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SHIFT SWWD OUT OF
SRN NM AND ACROSS SERN AZ THROUGH THE DAY.  AREA OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS
CURRENTLY EAST OF TUS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE
SYSTEMS.  THIS WILL INHIBIT HEATING FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON OVER
SERN AZ.  HOWEVER...NORTH OF THIS AREA SKIES REMAIN NEARLY CLOUD
FREE...WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF
TUS INTO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHX TODAY.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.
GIVEN DEGREE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF STEERING FLOW/SHEAR
...CONCERNED THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED OUTFLOW
WHICH MAY ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS IT SPREADS WSWWD
INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE DESERTS/FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

...AR/ERN OK/NERN TX...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED OR SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY
SSEWD INTO SERN OK/NRN TX/NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON.  WITHIN WARM
SECTOR...SOUNDINGS AT LZK AND SHV INDICATE LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER
STEEP GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE /SFC DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 70S/.  THOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK AT SHV THIS
MORNING...FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER /H5 WINDS NEAR 20 KT/ AT LZK AND
FROM DQU/HKL PROFILERS.  THUS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BECOME QUITE
WIDESPREAD BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND
WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS /REGION IS ALREADY NEARING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES AT 16Z/.  STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY...AND
MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON.  IN FACT...SHV/S MORNING SOUNDING
YIELDED VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCE OF 33C WHICH IS MORE THAN
FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD GENERALLY
EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
APPEARS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO/SRN WY THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AROUND SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGER
STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS
BEFORE DYING.

...NRN CA INTO SRN ORE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX LIFTING
NWD INTO NERN CA/NWRN NV THIS MORNING. THIS MAY FOCUS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/LIFT INTO NRN CA/SRN ORE FOR AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG. 
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF...MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.