[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240534
SWODY1
SPC AC 240532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE DLH BRD FAR 70
NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 50 SW GCN
45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 35 SW TVL MHS 35 NE MFR 45 NNW EAT 30
NNW GEG 40 NNW BOI 60 SSE BOI 25 SSW TWF 30 W MLD 40 E PIH 35 SW 27U
50 NNW 27U BZN RAP BFF AKO 35 NE DHT 40 WNW GAG MHK 40 NE SZL CKV
TRI 35 S MRB 10 SSW PSM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHT RISES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MOST OF GREAT LAKES REGION...AS
HUDSON BAY VORTEX FILLS AND EJECTS EWD/NEWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN QUE
AND LABRADOR STRAIT.  BROAD/DIFFUSE AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL BE LEFT BEHIND -- FROM LS SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.  SEVERAL
RELATIVELY WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THAT
FLOW...MOST NOTABLY TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER MT.  THIS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WY AND WRN NEB THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

...RED RIVER/ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE.  ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND MULTICELLULAR IN
MODE...STRONGEST TSTMS BEING INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.  GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE INVOF
WRN PORTION OF PLUME OF GREATEST PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS -- OVER NRN LA/SRN AR/SERN OK/NERN TX AREA.  FARTHER W WHERE
AIR MASS IS MORE DEEPLY MIXED...COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED...BUT
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS OVER ROUGHLY INVERTED-V SHAPED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.  MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG WHERE
70S F DEW POINTS ARE COMMON IN ARKLATEX AND MS RIVER REGION...TO
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NW TX.  LOW-MIDLEVEL ABSOLUTE FLOWS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WEAK...LIMITING ORGANIZATION
AND LONGEVITY OF CONVECTION ON LOCAL SCALES.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP THAT THE SMALL PERCENTAGE PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS STILL SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH EVENTS TO
WARRANT SUBCATEGORICAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION INVOF SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH SFC
DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN -- WILL DESTABILIZE AIR
MASS ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HAIL AND
GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY ADVECTION OF
RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LATER FLOW FROM SEASONALLY
COOL/POST-FRONTAL/CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN
ERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD 300-800 J/KG MLCAPE BY
ABOUT 24/22Z.  MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER NRN/CENTRAL CO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WITH
OVER 180 DEG OF LOW LEVEL VEERING ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS DESPITE
WEAKNESSES IN SPEEDS BETWEEN SFC-700 MB.  THIS YIELDS 100-200 J/KG
SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG FRONT RANGE AND MAY SUPPORT BRIEF PERIOD
OF STORM ROTATION.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO INSOLATION
AND WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 25/01Z.

..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.