[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240038
SWODY1
SPC AC 240036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE IPL EED CDC 35
NNE P38 50 W P38 TPH 30 WNW BIH 40 ENE SCK SVE WMC BOI S80 S06 45 NE
MSO LWT MLS REJ SHR DGW SNY LAA EHA LBL DDC SLN MKC VIH OWB LEX HTS
CRW SSU ROA SHD MRB HGR 40 NW RUT 3B1 35 NE CAR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...NRN STREAM PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX...AND
EXTENDING FROM NRN PLAINS ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. 
SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS FLOW FIELD.  ANOTHER PERTURBATION NOW APPARENT ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN WY SHOULD DRIFT EWD INTO NRN STREAM
TONIGHT.  SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM ERN NY SWWD ACROSS TN
VALLEY AND OZARKS REGIONS INTO ERN NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE TO COASTAL
MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z...AND TO DRIFT GENERALLY SWD
ELSEWHERE.

...PIEDMONT/TIDEWATER FROM MD-NC...
FRONTAL LINE OF PRIMARILY NONSEVERE TSTMS -- LOCATED AT 00Z FROM NRN
MD SWWD ACROSS VA PIEDMONT -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY SEWD
TOWARD TIDEWATER AREA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.  THERE WILL BE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 4Z...PARTICULARLY SRN PORTION...AIDED BY
CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL SCALE LIFT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ONLY
AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM...UNSUITABLE FOR DAMAGING HAIL GENERATION IN
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO
MD 70S ANALYZED ACROSS SERN VA AND ERN NC CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE IN SHORT TERM FCST SOUNDINGS.  WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND
AND SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE ANY SEVERE GUST THREAT WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED.

...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF/ISOLATED GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY BECAUSE OF WEAKENED BUOYANCY RELATED TO BOTH
SPREADING OUTFLOW POOLS AND DIABATIC/RADIATIONAL COOLING IN BOUNDARY
LAYER. STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS
WHERE CONVECTIVE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS
POSSIBLE.  AS IN ERN CONUS DISCUSSION AREA...WEAK DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR FIELDS PRECLUDE THREAT OF MORE THAN BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE
EVENTS DURING REMAINDER EVENING.

...AZ...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS
CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE.  THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WELL-ORGANIZED OR
VERY CONCENTRATED SO MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MAINTAINED. 
MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GULF SURGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
400-800 J/KG MLCAPE OVER LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...AND 100-400 J/KG
N OF MOGOLLON RIM...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  LARGE
AREAS OF CENTRAL/SERN AZ ALREADY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW POOLS...SO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME QUITE FRAGMENTED ON MESOBETA AND
SMALLER SCALES WITHIN REGION.

..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.