[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231959
SWODY1
SPC AC 231957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 SSE SGU
30 NW SGU 50 W P38 40 NW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 15 SSE RBL MFR 55
SE EUG 40 ESE RDM 60 WSW BOI 30 ENE BOI 40 NE S80 30 N MSO 15 NE HLN
50 SSE BIL 20 NW CPR 50 NNW BFF 30 NNE SNY 15 N LAA 15 WSW EHA 20 SE
LBL 25 E DDC 30 WSW MHK 10 WSW STJ 35 S IRK 15 W BLV 20 NE EVV 40
SSE LUK 25 E PKB 30 NNE PSB 30 NNW PBG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN VA TO WRN ME...

NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED FROM NRN VA INTO
NRN VT.  THIS ZONE SHOULD CONVECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC
FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND/MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.  A
NEGATIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE APPARENT WEAKNESS
IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PARTLY DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THROUGH PEAK HEATING A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...OTHERWISE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL.

...SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...

WEAK MVC IS SHEARING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL KS WITH A SLOWLY DECREASING
SHIELD OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF KS. 
SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...SFC FRONT HAS BEEN FORCED INTO WRN-NRN
PORTIONS OF OK WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE UNSTABLE...SBCAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 3000-4000J/KG.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION TO GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.  MUCH OF OK...AR...AND NWRN TX SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN
WEAKENING UPDRAFTS.

...AZ...

CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE EVOLVED OVER SERN AZ EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THAN ON THURSDAY. STEERING CURRENTS FAVOR SLOW PROPAGATION
OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS LOWER DESERTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DOWNBURSTS APPEARS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS
OF STATE IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER INSTABILITY.

..DARROW.. 07/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.