[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231610
SWODY1
SPC AC 231608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 SSE SGU
30 NW SGU 50 W P38 40 NW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 40 NNE SAC 30 ENE
MHS 65 SE BNO 45 S S80 40 ESE 3TH 65 NNW REJ 25 N RAP 10 S AIA 40
ESE AKO 50 E LAA 20 ENE GCK RSL 30 W BIE 35 SE OMA 25 SSE DSM 15 SSW
UIN 30 SW HUF 25 NNW LUK 25 WNW ZZV 25 SW FKL 35 NNE BUF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MO AND INTO NWRN OK
WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  COLD FRONT IS ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH HAS SHIFTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WELL SWD INTO
WEAK WLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  THOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST
AND WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BY THE MID AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SHEAR DUE TO WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY.  MUCH
OF THE MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF PRIMARY SURFACE
FRONT. HOWEVER...AREA FROM WRN INTO NRN OK AND SRN KS/SRN MO
APPEARS TO HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR NEARER SURFACE-BASED
DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL
FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE GREAT
LAKES...AS BREAKS CONTINUE/EXPAND IN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA.  LAPSE RATES AND FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS ARE
WEAK THIS MORNING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF-LIVED WIND DAMAGE.

...AZ...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST SAT IMAGERY INDICATE RATHER MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS AZ.  THOUGH AREA REMAINS UNDER EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WITH ATTENDANT WEAK FLOW...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TODAY.  STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENT NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. 
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE DUE TO THE WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.