[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231257
SWODY1
SPC AC 231255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 SSE SGU
30 NW SGU 50 W P38 40 NW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 15 N SAC 35 WSW LMT
25 W BNO 40 SE ALW 10 NE 3TH 40 WNW GTF 30 NNW MLS 50 SW DIK 30 ENE
MHN 40 W OFK 35 NNW OMA 50 WNW DSM 20 W UIN 20 ESE MTO 20 SE DAY 20
NE CMH 10 ESE YNG 20 NE ERI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS...

THIS MORNING A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NM NEWD THROUGH THE TX
PANHANDLE...NRN OK...SRN MO AND BEYOND. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
 ACROSS NWRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM HAS BEEN REINFORCED
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES
FROM CNTRL KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
MCV THAT IS CENTERED OVER SWRN KS AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY EWD. THE
WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE TEMPERED BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED.  STORMS MAY INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES.
MOST NUMEROUS STORMS ARE PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NRN OK INTO SRN KS
WHERE DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENHANCED
BY THE MCV NOW OVER SWRN KS. WITH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL TO
THE NORTH...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING WILL PERSIST ALONG AND N OF THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.


...NERN U.S....

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN CANADA WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONGER FLOW REGIME IN PART OF THIS AREA THAN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NATION WITH 25-35 KT BETWEEN 2 AND 5 KM OVER
NRN ME. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
NATURE OF THE FLOW. COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY E TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE
OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION. THE
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
MOST AREAS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER ME WHERE ONLY LOW CLOUDS EXIST.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN
THIS AREA APPEARS LIMITED.

..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 07/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.