[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230602
SWODY1
SPC AC 230600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 45 SSE SGU
SGU P38 55 WNW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT SAC 35 SW LMT 55 WSW BNO 35
NW BKE LWS 3TH GTF MLS 35 N REJ 30 WNW PHP 30 NE MHN OFK 45 WNW DSM
UIN HUF DAY CAK BFD 15 NE ROC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...ONE MORE DAY OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS FCST
FROM NRN ROCKIES TO NEW ENGLAND -- ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY AREA
CYCLONE -- BEFORE NRN STREAM DEAMPLIFICATION ENSUES.  HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE OVER GREAT LAKES DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD AS
CANADIAN VORTEX FILLS AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES ONT THEN
EJECTS AWAY FROM LAKES.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED
FROM SERN ONT SWWD ACROSS SRN IL TO WRN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO BE
REINFORCED AND MOVE EWD TOWARD COASTAL NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC BY
24/12Z.  FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...AND DRIFT SWD OVER OZARKS AND
S-CENTRAL PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY FORM OVER WRN OK OR ERN TX
PANHANDLE...HOWEVER...MORE SPECIFIC CHARACTER OF BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL BE STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION/INFLUENCES OF BOUNDARIES RELATED TO LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION NOW OVER WRN KS/SERN CO/NERN NM AND OK PANHANDLE.  THESE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...FROM OZARKS ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION TO
NERN NM...WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT CONTRIBUTING ON W END OF AREA.

BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPES SHOULD RISE TO
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE ROUGHLY E OF I-35...AIDED BY UPPER 60S TO MID
70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND STRONG INSOLATION.  MLCAPE WILL LESSEN WWD
TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AGAINST NRN NM MOUNTAINS...WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH BASED STORMS IN NM AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.  EARLY/DISCRETE CELLS
WILL EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  WEAKNESS OF LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE RISK OF SEVERE IS NOT INTENSE OR
CONCENTRATED ENOUGH YET TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WITH BRIEF/MARGINAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE FROM CAROLINAS THROUGH MID
ATLANTIC...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BEING MAIN CONCERN.  HOWEVER
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT IS
OVER PORTIONS ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND...ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER
MID-UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN VORTEX ALOFT.
 LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK OVER
THIS REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT OF PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW LIMITING CONVERGENCE.  HOWEVER...WITH CAPPING ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...TSTMS SHOULD FROM INVOF SFC FRONT
BY AFTERNOON -- PERHAPS FORMING A BROKEN BAND WITH STRONG TO
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GUSTS.  DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPES
GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG MOST AREAS.  HOWEVER...INSOLATION IN
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE POCKETS MAY RAISE CAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG
LOCALLY...BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F.  SOME
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.