[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230103
SWODY1
SPC AC 230102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE
CLE CAK ZZV UNI JKL 35 N TYS CSV BNA 35 WSW HOP 25 ENE PAH 35 SW OWB
15 NNE BWG 40 SSE SDF 50 ESE IND 15 NNE TOL 45 NE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 65 NW GBN
IGM LAS DRA 50 NW NID FAT TVL 75 ESE 4LW BOI S80 S06 3TH 40 SSW FCA
HLN BIL SHR 40 ENE 81V RAP 30 NE AIA SNY 50 NW GLD 40 SW EAR OLU FRM
EAU VOK JVL FWA 60 NNE MTC ...CONT... SSI AGS ATL HSV MKL UMN BVO
CSM ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE EFK POU JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 55 W MIA 50
S MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF FST 50 E BGS
ABI PBF CBM 20 S PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN TN TO NRN OH...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD BELT OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS -- FROM NRN ROCKIES TO NEW ENGLAND --
ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY AREA VORTEX.  WEAK UPPER LOW PERSISTS
OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ERN
QUE SWWD ACROSS ERN ONT...INDIANA...CENTRAL MO...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY OVER WRN KS AND DIFFUSE AMIDST CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
OVER ERN CO.

...OH VALLEY REGION...
REF REMAINING PORTIONS SPC WW 668 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST GUIDANCE REGARDING BROKEN COMPLEX OF
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT -- FROM SERN LOWER MI TO
CENTRAL/WRN KY.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL OH...CENTRAL/ERN KY AND PERHAPS NRN TN
BEFORE WEAKENING.  OH CONVECTION HAS GREATEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN
WELL ORGANIZED.  OBSERVED MLCAPES IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE -- AHEAD
OF CONVECTION AND BETWEEN ILN-BNA -- SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS.  BUOYANCY SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING WITH SFC DIABATIC COOLING ACROSS
ENTIRE REGION...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
LOSS OF INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF BOTH DIABATIC COOLING AND EXPANDING
OUTFLOW POOLS...COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW AND SHEAR IN LOW-MIDDLE
LEVELS...INDICATES ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS ENTIRE REGION BELOW THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR CATEGORICAL RISK
AREA.  CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MULTICELLS WILL
MEANDER ERRATICALLY ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND
CENTRAL KS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.  LARGE AREA
OF GENERALLY NON-SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SEWD
FROM ERN CO ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS...WITH OCCASIONAL
STRONG GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

..DEEP S TX...
UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN PREVAILING ELYS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WWD
OVER NERN MEX...CONTRIBUTING TO GEN TSTM POTENTIAL PORTIONS S TX AND
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WITHIN THAT REGION...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINAL
SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AMIDST
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. 
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND WEAK
STORM ROTATION...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED FOR CATEGORICAL RISK.

..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.