[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221633
SWODY1
SPC AC 221631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
SNY 20 WSW LNK 25 WSW MLI 45 W FWA 30 WSW LUK 10 WNW SDF ALN EMP HUT
GCK 20 WSW LAA PUB 25 N DEN 35 SW SNY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
ILM 30 W OAJ RWI 50 NE RWI 10 E DCA 10 NW PHL 20 S NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIE 25 N MLB
...CONT... 15 NNE JAX 35 NE MGR 10 WSW MCN 10 NNW AHN 45 WSW CHA 25
NW DYR 60 ESE HRO 45 WSW JLN 30 WNW BVO 30 NW CSM 40 S CVS 15 SE HOB
20 SSE MAF 15 N BWD 35 WNW TXK 50 NNE MLU 40 WSW CBM 20 SW TCL 30 S
MOB ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 15 S ALB 15 SW POU 15 SW JFK ...CONT... 50
ENE HVR BIL 15 S SHR 45 NW CDR 15 NNE VTN 30 E MCW 35 NW MKG 35 NNE
HTL 45 NNE APN ...CONT... 75 SE YUM 15 SW GBN 60 NNW GBN 10 SSW IGM
50 NNW DRA 30 ENE BIH 25 SW BIH 40 NNE FAT 55 SSW SVE 15 NE MHS 45
NNE LMT 60 NNE 4LW 40 SW BOI 45 WNW TWF 25 NW TWF 35 W SUN 55 NNW
BOI 40 SSW S80 25 SSW S06 70 ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO OHIO
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID SUMMER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
DELIVERING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO NRN CONUS E OF ROCKIES. COLD FRONT
MOVING SWD CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN LWR MI WSWWD ACROSS WI INTO
CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CENTRAL U.S. HAS
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WELL S OF FRONTAL LOCATION FROM IA/MO BORDER
WSWWD ACROSS NRN KS INTO ERN CO.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO S OF SURFACE 
BOUNDARIES AND FRONT MID MS AND OH VALLEYS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO OH VALLEY...
THE POOL OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IS CENTERED TODAY FROM MID
MS VALLEY TO S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EWD ACROSS IL AND IN.  SHEAR
PROFILES IN THIS WARM SECTOR ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MID LEVEL FLOW MOST AREAS 20-30 KT.  WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
70S...MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 4000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE
STORM INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS
THAN 7C/KM AND WARM MID LEVELS...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WET
DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARIES INCLUDING THE
COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SEWD INTO SRN LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THERE IS SUFFICIENT FLOW FOR FORWARD
PROPAGATING STORMS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL UNTIL
MID EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL WEAKEN STORMS.

UPSLOPE DEVELOPS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WWD TO FRONT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON TO N OF COLD FRONT.  THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8C/KM...FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 10-20 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
PRIMARILY MULTICELL STORMS WITH ENOUGH VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  PULSE SEVERE HAIL/WIND
WITH SMALL CHANCE OF BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD BE THE LIMIT OF THE THREAT
TODAY.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
NLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF OFF SHORE UPPER LOW AND BOUNDARY
LAYER S/SWLY FLOW...RESULTS IN 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  WITH
HEATING...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...SUFFICIENT GIVEN
THE SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE PULSE STORMS.  CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL
LIKELY BE OLD BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DISSIPATING CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INLAND.

...SERN AZ...
WHILE A GULF SURGE WILL BE ENTERING SRN AZ TODAY...EFFECTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MID LEVEL NELY STEERING
FLOW AND MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WITH AROUND 8C/KM LAPSE RATES FAVOR
A FEW STORMS PROPAGATING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.  PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THE HIGH LCL LEVEL AROUND
10K FEET.

...S TX...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS S TX...PUTTING MUCH OF THIS
AREA UNDER 20-25 KT SLY FLOW OF A MOIST...VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY
CAPPED AIR MASS.  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT MOVES
INLAND.

..HALES/LEVIT.. 07/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.