[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221305
SWODY1
SPC AC 221303

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
ILM 20 SSE FAY 20 WSW RWI 50 NE RWI DCA 10 NW PHL 10 SSE ACY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
SNY 10 SE OLU 15 NNW MLI 30 NNE MMO 35 N DNV 10 S MTO ALN EMP HUT
GCK 20 WSW LAA PUB 25 N DEN 35 SW SNY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 25 ENE IGM
25 WNW SGU 65 NW P38 20 SSE TPH 40 NNE NID 60 ESE FAT 10 NNW SAC 55
NW RBL 45 NNW MFR 25 SW RDM 55 S BKE 15 WNW S80 70 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 40 SE GTF 40
ENE 4BQ 45 NNW PHP 35 N OTG 30 ENE RST 25 NNE MTW 10 S PLN 75 ESE
ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE HUL 20 ESE 3B1
15 E MWN BAF 25 ENE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MEM 40 NW LIT 35
ENE FSM 50 NW FYV 30 E BVO 25 W BVO 30 N OKC 25 NE LTS 25 SSW CDS 50
SSE LBB 25 SW BGS 55 SW SJT 20 NW JCT 55 W TPL 60 SW TYR 30 ENE SHV
35 ENE MLU JAN 15 NNE MEI 15 SSW TCL 35 WNW BHM 20 ENE MSL 35 N MSL
15 SW MKL 40 W MEM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO SRN IA / NRN MO / IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL EXPAND SEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH SRN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO OCCUR AS FAR S AS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS / MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  

STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES /
NRN PLAINS...ON THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM
NRN LK MI SWWD ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN NEB / NRN KS.  THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / SEWD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY / SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD INTO SRN IA / NRN MO / CENTRAL IL...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INVOF WEAK
MID-LEVEL FEATURE...AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. 
MEANWHILE...SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY SWD / SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION INVOF BOUNDARY -- WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMA E OF ONGOING MID
MO VALLEY STORMS AND ACROSS ERN CO / WRN KS / SRN MO IN ENELY
UPSLOPE FLOW N OF BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST
TO BE GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL.  

STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS KS / CO AND PERHAPS
INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLES...AS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN KS.  LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING -- WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING N AND E OF LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.

...COASTAL VA / NC AND THE DELMARVA REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH IN MOIST /
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE OVER THIS REGION GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER
FLOW...VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...KY / MID OH VALLEY REGION...
STORMS AHEAD OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ERN
KY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WEAKENS S AND E OF THIS CONVECTION. 
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF
THIS CLUSTER ACROSS THE LOWER / MID OH VALLEY REGION...FAIRLY WEAK
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.

...SWRN NM / SERN AZ...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN AZ / SWRN NM COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SUPPORT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WLY / SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NELY
MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SPREADING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INTO SERN AZ
WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..GOSS.. 07/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.