[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211940
SWODY1
SPC AC 211939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
MLI 30 WSW RFD 30 SSW MKE 40 SW MKG GRR 20 NNE LAN 25 SE FNT 25 SE
DTW 10 W FDY 30 NE MIE 10 WNW LAF 25 N CMI 15 ENE PIA 35 SE MLI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
ROC 20 SE HLG 25 S LUK 15 NNE COU 20 WSW SLN 25 SSW HSI 35 N FNB 25
NE OTM 25 NNW DBQ GRB 40 NNW PLN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
INL 50 SW DLH 25 ENE MKT 15 SSW OTG 25 ESE 9V9 40 NE PIR 50 WNW ABR
15 SSW FAR 35 SE GFK 35 NW GFK 65 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 40 ESE IGM
35 ENE DRA 10 S BIH SAC 10 SSW RBL 10 E MFR 55 S RDM 55 WSW MQM 45
NW LND 55 N DGW 45 NNE RAP 25 SSE Y22 40 ENE Y22 40 E DIK 20 NNW GDV
55 E LWT 50 N 3DU 45 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SYR 15 WSW ELM
10 ENE PSB 10 S MGW 15 WSW CRW 20 NNE LOZ 30 ESE BWG 30 ENE MKL 45
WSW MEM 10 S LIT 35 ESE FSM 15 SE FYV 25 SSW UMN 20 ESE JLN 35 NNW
JLN 15 SSE CNU 40 NNW BVO 30 NW PNC 45 W END 25 SSW CDS 30 SE SJT 45
NNW SAT 35 NE AUS 50 SSE SHV 30 NW MCB 30 E GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH SSI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER
MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NERN KS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...EWD INTO WRN PA/NY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN...

...OH VALLEY/LOWER MI...

REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE DRIFTED INTO ERN IA WHERE A
DECAYING MVC HAS ALL BUT LOST ITS IDENTITY.  LEADING EDGE OF DEBRIS
FIELD SHOULD WITH TIME BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOSTLY UNCAPPED WITH
STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT...PER 18Z SOUNDINGS.  OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO IT APPEARS AN UPWARD CONVECTIVE TREND IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
SERN WI INTO SRN LOWER LAKE MI.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF LOWER MI IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD
INTO IL THEN SURGE EWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE
AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
3000-4000J/KG FROM SRN IL INTO NWRN IND.  DAMAGING BOW ECHOES
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EVOLVING MCS SHOULD EMERGE BY EARLY EVENING AS
COMPLEX SPREADS EWD AFTER DARK.

...ERN DAKOTAS/MN...

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO MN WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW.  THERE APPEARS TO BE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
WHICH HAS MAINTAINED A MORE SLY COMPONENT...ALBEIT WEAK...TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS ERN SD INTO MN.  THIS ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
DEEP LAYER FLOW REGIME IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH
STORMS THAT SPREAD FROM SD INTO MN THIS EVENING.  OTHER POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA ACROSS NERN
ND INTO NWRN MN.  LOCAL HAIL ALGORITHMS ON 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM SRN
MANITOBA SUGGEST HAIL MAY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 07/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.