[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211613
SWODY1
SPC AC 211611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
MLI 30 WSW RFD 30 SSW MKE 40 SW MKG GRR 20 NNE LAN 25 SE FNT 25 SE
DTW 10 W FDY 30 NE MIE 10 WNW LAF 25 N CMI 15 ENE PIA 35 SE MLI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
ROC 20 SE HLG 25 S LUK 20 NW UIN 50 W CNK 15 SSE EAR 25 SSE SUX 30
WNW RST 50 ENE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 40 ESE IGM
35 ENE DRA 10 S BIH SAC 10 SSW RBL 15 SSE LMT 45 W BOI 55 WSW MQM 45
NW LND 55 N DGW 45 NNE RAP 25 SSE Y22 40 ENE Y22 40 E DIK 30 NW GDV
50 ENE LWT 50 NE MSO 45 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SYR 15 WSW ELM
10 ENE PSB 10 S MGW 15 WSW CRW 20 NNE LOZ 30 ESE BWG 30 ENE MKL 45
WSW MEM 10 S LIT 35 ESE FSM 15 SE FYV 25 SSW UMN 20 ESE JLN 35 NNW
JLN 15 SSE CNU 40 NNW BVO 30 NW PNC 45 W END 25 SSW CDS 30 SE SJT 45
NNW SAT 35 NE AUS 50 SSE SHV 30 NW MCB 30 E GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH SSI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN OH VALLEY AND
LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN
OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES EXCLUDING THE MDT RISK AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPING CENTRAL CANADA WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TODAY. RESULT IN CONUS WILL BE A BAND OF STRONG WLYS...60KT AT
500MB/80-90 KT AT 300MB SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN MS VALLEY INTO UPR
GREAT LAKES.

MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND MN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT AND
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO NWRN KS.

ADDITIONALLY MCV THAT ORIGINATED FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN IA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH  A SEPARATE MID
LEVEL WIND MAX. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL BY 12Z
ETA AND TRACKS EWD TO ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY THIS EVENING.

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

VERY MOIST/PW'S AROUND 2 INCHES/ AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS/MLCAPES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM 2500-3500 J/KG...WILL FUEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE MCV.  THIS ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS
 MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WIND DAMAGE WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE LINES OF
STORMS WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FLOW SUPPORTING
POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG WINDS.

CAP AT 16Z ABOUT GONE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN PORTION OF MDT RISK
AREA...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL
THREAT IS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM
WI SWWD TO THE KS/NEB BORDER. MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT VS THE MDT RISK AREA. REF MCD 1750

..HALES.. 07/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.