[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211258
SWODY1
SPC AC 211256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
ROC 20 SE HLG 25 S LUK 20 NW UIN 60 WNW CNK 25 WNW EAR 25 E YKN 30
NNE MKT 50 ENE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 40 ESE IGM
35 ENE DRA 10 S BIH SAC 10 SSW RBL 15 SSE LMT 45 W BOI 55 WSW MQM 20
E BIL RAP 35 W PIR 25 SSW ATY 30 ENE ATY 40 NNE FAR 55 N BIS 75 WSW
GGW 30 S HVR 50 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 35 E VLD 45
NW SAV 40 WNW FLO 15 WNW RWI 20 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 ESE AUG 30 NW
GFL 40 NW CXY 20 S PSK 50 SSW TYS 30 ENE MKL 30 WNW SGF 35 NNW END
25 SSW CDS 30 SE SJT 45 NNW SAT 35 NE AUS 50 SSE SHV 30 NW MCB 30 E
GPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE / DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE BELT OF STRONGER / WEAKLY CYCLONIC WLY FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS / ALONG SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE.  SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE EWD THROUGH THIS STRONGER BELT OF FLOW...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE THREAT FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM IA / MN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN
ONTARIO / WRN MN SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD
WITH TIME.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM WI / IA SWWD INTO KS /
SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY / LOWER LAKES...
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS SERN MN / NERN IA INTO SWRN WI /
NWRN IL ATTM...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE
WLY FLOW ALOFT.  STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING /
AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...WITH WLY / SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SUPPLYING HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THIS REGION.

MODERATELY-STRONG / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS SPREAD
EWD ACROSS WI / IL INTO LOWER MI / IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING
AHEAD OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL.  ALTHOUGH ONSET OF DIURNAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY /
LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT...LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR EWD
AS WRN PA / WRN NY.  

MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT BEHIND
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING AIRMASS CAN
RECOVER.  SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS.

...MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING STORMS AS AIRMASS RECOVERY /
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.  

GREATEST INSTABILITY -- AS WELL AS STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- IS
FORECAST FROM SRN MN / IA SWWD INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY
EVENING.  SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
ACROSS SRN MN / IA...WHERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEARS TO EXIST.

FURTHER SWWD ACROSS KS AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS -- AS FLOW DECREASES WITH SWD
EXTENT.  NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
STRONGER / MULTICELL STORMS IS ANTICIPATED.  ALONG WITH ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE STORMS SHOULD BE
HIGHER-BASED.

..GOSS.. 07/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.