[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 192002
SWODY1
SPC AC 192000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
RST 15 ENE LSE 25 N MSN 20 ESE RFD 10 ENE BMI 20 SSW SPI 30 S UIN 30
ESE P35 25 WSW DSM 25 N FOD 30 WSW RST.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
4BQ 25 N MLS 25 W SDY 40 NNE DIK 40 NE Y22 30 WNW PIR 30 ESE RAP 50
SE 81V 20 S 4BQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
CTB 30 N HLN 10 ENE DLN 50 NE SUN 50 SSE BOI 60 WSW BOI 35 SSW BKE
45 ENE BKE 45 SSE S06 45 NNW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 45 N MFR 45 E SLE
40 SSE SEA 10 NNE BLI ...CONT... 25 ESE IPL 50 ESE EED 25 NNW IGM 35
NNE LAS 25 NW DRA 65 SE BIH 40 NE FAT 40 ENE SAC 35 NNE SAC 55 SSE
UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PFN 25 WSW VLD
25 NNW AYS 35 SSE AGS 25 NNE AHN 30 WSW HSS 10 S 5I3 UNI MFD 10 N
LAF 20 NNW SLO 40 WNW POF 40 NE HRO 35 SSE CNU 30 E OLU 30 S SPW 40
NNW OTG 30 NE MHE 20 E VTN 50 SW MHN 45 ESE AKO 40 NE LAA 35 ENE LBL
60 NNW ABI 10 NE HDO 60 SSE LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES/INTER
MOUNTAIN REGION...

...MID MS VALLEY...

ELEVATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION APPEAR TO BE
ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SERN MN/NERN IA/SWRN WI.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES SWD
ALONG EDGE OF STRONG CAP.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST ERN IA
WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION.  THIS APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS FOR AN EVOLVING MCS THAT
MAY PROPAGATE INTO NERN PORTIONS OF MO/WCNTRL IL LATER THIS EVENING.
 LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO A NW-SE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER
VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER EXTREME SERN MT...TURNING MORE ESEWD AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM CENTRAL MT...INTO
WRN ND.  HOWEVER...POCKETS OF SUNSHINE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ELY
BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WITH TIME...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DEEPEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...POSSIBLY JUST
WEST OF UPPER VORT MAX...THEN SPREAD SEWD TOWARD STRONGER SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

...NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WA/ORE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM ERN ORE INTO WRN MT.  12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM THIS REGION INDICATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. 
IT APPEARS A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK REGION WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 07/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.