[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200042
SWODY1
SPC AC 200041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
4BQ 45 S GDV 45 ESE GDV 10 ENE DIK 40 NE Y22 25 SSW MBG 50 SSE PHP
45 SSW RAP 30 ESE 4BQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE
CTB 35 S GTF 20 NW WEY 15 SSW MLD 40 SE OWY 90 NNW WMC 40 NNE BNO 20
WNW PDT 45 NNW ALW 35 N 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
BRD 20 SE DLH 15 SSE IWD 50 SSW ESC 30 WNW MKG 25 NNE CGX 25 S RFD
30 SE DBQ 30 SE RST 10 W MSP 30 ESE BRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 45 N MFR 45 E SLE
40 SSE SEA 10 NNE BLI ...CONT... 25 ESE IPL 50 ESE EED 25 NNW IGM 35
NNE LAS 25 NW DRA 65 SE BIH 40 NE FAT 40 ENE SAC 35 NNE SAC 55 SSE
UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PFN 25 WSW VLD
25 NNW AYS 35 SSE AGS 25 NNE AHN 30 WSW HSS 10 S 5I3 UNI MFD 10 N
LAF 20 NNW SLO 40 WNW POF 40 NE HRO 50 ENE CNU 10 NW OMA 25 WNW OLU
15 NNW EAR 10 S LBF 50 N IML 45 SE SNY 45 ESE AKO 40 NE LAA 35 ENE
LBL 60 NNW ABI 10 NE HDO 60 SSE LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...

...NRN ROCKIES...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ ARE
ONGOING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
ORE/NRN NV INTO ID. SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ID IN ADDITION TO
CONCENTRATED REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER MUCH OF ID INTO SWRN MT
ARE INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HERE...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM ARE LARGELY
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO MLCIN.
MOREOVER...45-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ID INTO WRN
MT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 1738.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND W-CNTRL SD ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
TROUGH IN NRN/NWRN QUADRANT OF COMPACT VORTICITY MAX TRANSLATING EWD
INTO WRN SD. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY
MOIST...CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN SD SEWD INTO NWRN IA/ ALONG
AXIS OF DEVELOPING 25-35KT SLY LLJ.

...WRN GREAT LAKES...
BAND OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS FROM THE UP OF MI WWD ACROSS NRN WI
INTO NERN MN ALONG AND S OF NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS
THAT SAME GENERAL AREA. WEAK IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DIVING SWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IS ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
ONGOING DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL WI ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MORNING CONVECTION. 00Z DVN SOUNDING INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUSTAINED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL REMAIN OVER NRN
INTO CNTRL WI WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT CAP IS
WEAKER.

..MEAD.. 07/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.