[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191634
SWODY1
SPC AC 191632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
MKT 10 NNW AUW 10 SE GRB 25 WSW CGX 40 SE BRL 10 NW P35 50 NNE FNB
60 ESE SUX 35 SE MKT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
GCC 30 SSW MLS 10 W GDV 20 SE DIK 45 SE Y22 30 WNW PIR 30 ESE RAP 50
SE 81V 25 NNE GCC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE IPL 50 ESE EED
25 NNW IGM 35 NNE LAS 25 NW DRA 65 SE BIH 40 NE FAT 40 ENE SAC 35
NNE SAC 55 SSE UKI ...CONT... ACV 45 N MFR 45 E SLE 40 SSE SEA 10
NNE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PFN 25 WSW VLD
25 NNW AYS 35 SSE AGS 25 NNE AHN 30 WSW HSS 10 S 5I3 UNI MFD 10 N
LAF 20 NNW SLO 40 WNW POF 40 NE HRO 35 SSE CNU 30 E OLU 30 S SPW 40
NNW OTG 30 NE MHE 20 NNE CDR 55 WSW CDR 25 NE CYS 45 E LAA 35 ENE
LBL 60 NNW ABI 10 NE HDO 60 SSE LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MID WEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HI PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TROUGH IN THE E SLOWLY FILLS AND SHIFTS EWD. 
WEAK S/WV TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS RIDGE WITH ONE CURRENTLY MOVING E
ACROSS MT WHILE SYSTEM OFFSHORE PAC NW LIFTS NEWD INTO SWRN CANADA.

WEAK FRONTAL ZONE HAS SAGGED SEWD UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SRN MN WWD ACROSS SRN SD AND THEN NWWD INTO
ERN MT.

...UPPER MIDWEST...

AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE LOCATED NE/SW ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NRN IA. NWLY FLOW OF
35-45 KT E OF RIDGE OVER UPPER MID WEST ALONG WITH 10-20KT SWLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW..RESULTS IN 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN EXPECTED
MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR
VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE THREAT
EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE PERIOD.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE ELYS ACROSS WRN SD INTO ERN MT RESULTING IN VERY MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS INTO THIS AREA. WITH WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
WRN MT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG
HEATING OCCURS.  CLOUD COVER OVER NERN MT INTO WRN ND SHOULD FOCUS
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT NERN CORNER WY/SERN MT ACROSS BLACK HILLS WHERE
MLCAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG.  VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS STORMS EVOLVING INTO A POSSIBLE MCS BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS SD.  AGAIN EARLY PART OF CONVECTIVE PERIOD COULD SEE
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.  WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS MAINLY SD THIS
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT.

...INTERIOR PAC NW...

STRONGER SWLY FLOW MOVES INLAND AS TROUGH LIFTS INTO B.C  WITH MID
LEVEL SHEAR BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ERN WA/OR INTO WRN MT TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. 
HOWEVER SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LAPSE
RATES ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 8C/KM...A PORTION OF THIS AREA
COULD STILL BE UPGRADED IN 20Z OUTLOOK.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
A MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS
AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE AREA.  WHILE LOW LEVEL
WIND PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF 25-30 KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.