[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191254
SWODY1
SPC AC 191253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
MKT 10 NNW AUW 10 SE GRB 25 WSW CGX 40 SE BRL 45 NNW SZL 30 SW FNB
35 W OMA 35 SE MKT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
GCC 30 SSW MLS 10 W GDV 20 SE DIK 45 SE Y22 30 WNW PIR 50 SE RAP 50
SE 81V 25 NNE GCC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE PFN ABY 15 ESE
AHN 30 SSW JKL 40 SSE MIE 25 NW HUF 55 SSW STL 30 N HRO 20 NE BVO 10
N HSI 50 WNW LBF 25 SE SNY LIC 35 S EHA 40 WSW BWD 60 NE MFE
...CONT... 70 SSE MRF 35 NNW GDP 25 N DMN 30 SE SAD 10 WSW DUG
...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 55 ENE PHX 50 NW PRC 15 SW P38 25 SE TPH 15 SW
BIH 30 W TVL 25 N MHS 40 NE MFR 15 NW DLS 55 E BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 40 NW BRD
30 S FAR 45 NE BIS 55 NNW MOT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COMPRISED
OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SENSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY. COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE
IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...THERE WILL BE FOUR
FOCUSED AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
OVER THE NATION.

AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED/D WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TOPPING THE RIDGE IN SRN CANADA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY THE ERN U.P OF MI SWWD TO NEAR
MKC BY 20/00Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN ARC BACK NWWD TO A SFC LOW
NEAR RAP AND INTO ALBERTA CANADA. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW WILL
MOVE ACROSS ERN WA/ORE AND AID AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. FARTHER EAST...A SLOWLY EWD MOVING SFC
BOUNDARY/LOW CENTER WILL AID IN FOCUSING AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
SERN VA...ERN NC/SC AND SERN GA.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAA REGIME OVER
MN/NWRN WI IS ANTICIPATED TO POSE ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AND
SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
CINH REMAINS STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD AND LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THIS CONVECTION CAN
MAINTAIN ENOUGH ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL THAT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ENSUE WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER
FAR SERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT FROM
WCENTRAL WI SWWD INTO NCENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR EXISTING OVER CENTRAL/NERN IA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK OVER WCENTRAL IA/FAR SERN NEB INTO
NWRN MO IS CONDITIONAL BASED ON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THAT
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THIS AREA DESPITE SOME CINH. MLCAPES AROUND
4000 J/KG AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG
WITH CONVERGENCE FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIG HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IA TO CENTRAL WI THAT
IS MORE CERTAIN TO DEVELOP SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SWD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS THROUGH SRN IA/NERN MO AND
NRN IL WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING
WINDS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY OVER ERN
MT SEWD TO NEAR A LOW CENTER NEAR RAP. VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AND A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DESPITE
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS COMBINED
WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 MLCAPE BASED ON THE 12Z GGW SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT THERE IS SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD
PROPAGATING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM SERN MT/FAR NERN WY INTO SWRN
ND/WRN SD. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK IS STILL WARRANTED IN THIS AREA.
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND INCREASING CINH AS IT MOVES INTO
SCENTRAL ND/CENTRAL SD.

...ERN ORE/WA AND NRN ID...
STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WRN WA/ORE ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FORCING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WILL AID IN SOME SEVERE THREAT. EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH SCENTRAL WA MAY STABILIZE NERN WA AND FAR
NRN ID SUCH THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MITIGATED IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE THAT AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL EXIST BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEGREE OF SHEAR SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH
THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

...ERN CAROLINAS/FAR SERN VA/GA...
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER NERN NC SWWD INTO ECENTRAL GA 
AND BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE 30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND ANTICIPATED MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPES...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE
RATES 6-6.5 DEG C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY...WILL BE THE MAIN MITIGATING
FACTORS FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.

..CROSBIE/GOSS.. 07/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.