[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190532
SWODY1
SPC AC 190530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
MKT 30 NW OSH 45 ENE MKE 25 WSW CGX 20 N PIA OTM 55 WNW DSM 10 NE
SPW 25 E MKT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
81V 25 WNW REJ 35 ESE DIK 15 ESE BIS 45 NE MBG 35 SSE MBG 35 WSW PHP
40 SW RAP 30 SE 81V.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE PFN ABY 15 ESE
AHN 30 SSW JKL 40 SSE MIE 25 NW HUF 55 SSW STL 30 ESE UMN 30 SW EMP
30 WNW GRI 40 SW MHN 25 SE SNY LIC 35 S EHA 40 E SJT 60 NE MFE
...CONT... 70 SSE MRF 35 NNW GDP 25 N DMN 30 SE SAD 10 WSW DUG
...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 55 ENE PHX 50 NW PRC 15 SW P38 25 SE TPH 15 SW
BIH 30 W TVL 25 N MHS 40 NE MFR 15 NW DLS 55 E BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN
DAKOTAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES
WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD TODAY ACROSS THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH
EJECTING STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM /CURRENTLY OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS/
INTO SWRN CANADA WILL LEAD TO FLATTENING OF WRN U.S. RIDGE.  IN THE
E...DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE N-CNTRL PART OF THE NATION.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT SEWD
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS TODAY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM
THE CNTRL UP OF MI SWWD INTO NWRN IA BY EARLY EVENING. WRN EXTENSION
OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN ARC BACK TO THE NW TOWARD A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER SERN MT OR WRN SD. IN THE E...SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH TRAILING
PORTIONS SAGGING SWD ACROSS SERN STATES/FL PENINSULA.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY NEWD ACROSS SRN
MN INTO WRN WI WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. STORMS MAY
BE ONGOING INITIALLY OR DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
FARTHER NE ALONG FRONT OVER NRN WI/UP OF MI WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAKER BUT DEEP-LAYER FORCING MORE INTENSE. SUBSEQUENT SWWD
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS
INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE BUT STRONGER CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
OVER SRN MN AND IA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATE
STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES YIELDING 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND 0-3KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

STORMS MAY TEND TO MERGE INTO CLUSTERS TONIGHT WHILE
MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IL AND POSSIBLY
NRN MO.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITHIN ASCENT REGION OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT/NRN WY
TODAY...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING LAPSE RATES AND AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WRN PARTS OF SD LATER TODAY
WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH AXIS OF HIGHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS...TSTMS MOVING OUT OF NERN
WY/SERN MT SHOULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL
THREAT AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DECREASING STABILITY. DEVELOPING
30-40KT SLY LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOIST INFLOW AND SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SRN EDGE OF STORM CLUSTERS/MCS WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL ND OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER N ACROSS ERN MT AND ND...ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY AHEAD OF TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT
WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. FORCING
ALONG TAIL OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH POSITION OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY AID IN AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 25-30KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL/WIND.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.