[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190042
SWODY1
SPC AC 190040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
IWD 35 NE MSP 30 S RWF 25 NNE 9V9 30 SSW MBG 35 NW MBG 40 WNW GFK 75
NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 45 N MRF
30 SW 4CR 75 NNW SVC 50 E DUG ...CONT... 15 S YUM 35 SE EED 50 NNE
LAS 45 N DRA 55 WSW DRA 50 NW NID 40 ENE SAC RBL 55 WNW RBL 35 SSE
OTH 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE MQT 20 NW LSE 20 NW OMA 45 SSW MHN
15 SSE 81V 50 NNE CPR 45 SW DGW 45 SE LIC 50 S LBL 20 NNE CDS 55 E
JCT 25 SSE AUS 10 WNW SEM 40 W CSV 20 S EVV LAF 25 NNW AZO 30 SSW
OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG WEAK
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN ND WITHIN MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. CURRENT
GRAND FORKS VWP INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH 45-55KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 200-250
M2/S2. THOUGH LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...COMBINATION OF MODESTLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF
S-CNTRL ND/N-CNTRL SD. DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER AND COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OUTFLOW
DOMINANT STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR POSSIBLY AN MCS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
/CNTRL MN AND POSSIBLY INTO ERN SD...THOUGH CAP IS PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER WITH WRN EXTENT /PER 00Z ABR SOUNDING/.

...VA/NC/SC PIEDMONT REGION...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION WITHIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z RNK/GSO SOUNDINGS. THESE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND AHEAD OF
WEAK UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. PRESENCE
OF 30-35KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUSTAIN A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN
LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.

..MEAD.. 07/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.