[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 182005
SWODY1
SPC AC 182003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
DLH 25 ESE STC 45 SW AXN 40 SSE JMS 80 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 45 N MRF
30 SW 4CR 75 NNW SVC 50 E DUG ...CONT... 15 S YUM 35 SE EED 50 NNE
LAS 45 N DRA 55 WSW DRA 50 NW NID 40 ENE SAC RBL 55 WNW RBL 35 SSE
OTH 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE MQT 10 ESE EAU 40 W RWF 30 NNE PHP
15 NE 81V 50 NNE CPR 45 SW DGW 45 SE LIC 35 NNW GAG 25 W LTS 55 E
JCT 25 SSE AUS 10 WNW SEM 40 W CSV 20 S EVV LAF 25 NNW AZO 20 NNE
MBS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN...

...ERN ND/NRN MN...
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS
MOVED SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN MN...AWAY FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED.  EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA TO
CENTRAL ND...WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG/.  MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/
WRN MN COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP INTO ERN ND/NWRN MN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
CONTINUED WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL ALSO AID IN DESTABILIZING
THE AIR MASS EWD ACROSS NRN MN.

18Z RUC SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ND/MANITOBA BORDER NEWD INTO WRN
ONTARIO BY 00Z...WITH STORMS THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN
BETWEEN 00-03Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES SEWD.  40 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  GIVEN THE
FURTHER WWD EXPECTED STORM INITIATION...THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED WWD INTO ERN ND.  CONTINUED WAA OVERNIGHT WILL TEND TO
SUPPORT STORMS EVOLVING INTO A MCS AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS NRN MN.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM SRN GA ENEWD TO FAR
SRN NC.  THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  30-35 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD MINIMIZE
THE SEVERE THREAT.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING BENEATH
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MOIST/UNSTABLE...
BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST.

..PETERS.. 07/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.