[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181618
SWODY1
SPC AC 181617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
CMX 40 S IWD 25 ESE STC 45 SW AXN GFK 80 NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S YUM 35 SE EED 50
NNE LAS 45 N DRA 55 WSW DRA 50 NW NID 40 ENE SAC RBL 55 WNW RBL 35
SSE OTH 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE MQT 10 ESE EAU 40 W RWF 30 NNE
PHP 15 NE 81V 50 NNE CPR 45 SW DGW 45 SE LIC 35 NNW GAG 25 W LTS 55
E JCT 25 SSE AUS 10 WNW SEM 25 W TYS 20 S EVV LAF 15 ESE GRR 20 NNE
MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 45 N MRF
30 SW 4CR 65 NNE SAD 20 WSW DUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
LILLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
OVER INTERIOR W AND BROAD TROUGH MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EWD ERN U.S.
UPPER LOW OFF W COAST MOVING NNEWD INTO SWRN B.C. BY MON MORNING.  A
WEAK IMPULSE IS EMBEDDED IN MONSOONAL FLOW ON W SIDE OF RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. S/WV TROUGH DROPPING SEWD
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO CANADA  WILL HAVE INFLUENCE
PRIMARILY N OF BORDER.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS ND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO NRN MN OVERNIGHT.  WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF
FRONT ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND AID IN
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS NRN MS VALLEY..BUT ALSO PROMOTE CAPPING.

MAIN S/WV TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE
IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER TROUGH.

...NRN MN...
OVERNIGHT MCS MOVING INTO NWRN MN WEAKENING...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER SLOWING THE HEATING PROCESS.  MODELS BRING SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT INTO NRN MN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION NOTED AT THE 850MB LEVEL AT 12Z NRN PLAINS...AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE EWD ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON.  CAP
WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION  ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.  WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT AS
WELL AS A POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO.

STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A MCS DURING EVENING...HOWEVER THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT
REMAINS TO THE N OVER CANADA.

..MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS THIS AREA AS S/WV MOVES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER WITH A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINING E OF
APPALACHIANS...THE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG  WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DOWNBURST THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...WRN U.S...
CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW WARMING THIS PM OVER INTERIOR NWRN U.S. AS WEAK
S/WV TROUGH MOVES THRU NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR NWRN U.S...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND REDUCED SURFACE HEATING.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.